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Data: Atlanta Fed; Chart: Axios Visuals

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker estimates that real GDP growth in the second quarter will decline by -52.8%.

What they're saying: That estimate is down from -51.2% on May 29 and -40.4% on May 28.

Why it matters: Recent economic reports have shown slightly improving numbers, but the Atlanta Fed's model suggests the overall trend is projecting a worse quarter than most economists had as even their worst-case scenario only weeks ago.

  • The 10 percentage point decline from last week's estimates is based on Monday's ISM report on business and the construction spending report from the U.S. Census Bureau.

By the numbers: Expectations for real personal consumption expenditures declined from -56.5% to -58.1% and expectations for real gross private domestic investment decreased from -61.5% to -62.6%, the Atlanta Fed noted.

What's next: Today's data will be closely watched with the release of IHS Markit and ISM's nonmanufacturing indexes for May and the ADP private payrolls report potentially offering some good news for investors.

Go deeper

Dion Rabouin, author of Markets
Sep 1, 2020 - Economy & Business

The bond market's tug of war

Investors bought the dip in U.S. Treasuries on Monday following a significant move higher in yields on longer-dated maturities after the Fed's Jackson Hole symposium last week. Investors especially bought the 30-year bond, which saw yields rise to the highest level since mid-June on Friday.

Why it matters: A tug of war is developing in the bond market as inflation expectations are rising thanks to unprecedented central bank and government stimulus measures globally.

Journalism enters dangerous new era

Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios

The Capitol attack on Jan. 6 resulted in at least nine physical assaults against journalists and at least five arrests, per the U.S. Press Freedom Tracker's top editor.

Why it matters: President Trump's harsh rhetoric towards the press has empowered leaders abroad and locally in the U.S. to continue to attack press that they don't like.

Ben Geman, author of Generate
3 hours ago - Politics & Policy

The beginning of the beginning for Biden's climate push

Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

Joe Biden's inauguration and the days right after will bring a rat-tat-tat burst of climate policy moves, but keep this in mind amid the splashy pledges: pushing through most of his agenda will be a long, uncertain slog.

Why it matters: Biden's climate plan is far more expansive than anything contemplated under President Obama. But for all the immediate pledges, it will take years to see how far Biden gets.