Data: Atlanta Fed; Chart: Axios Visuals

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker estimates that real GDP growth in the second quarter will decline by -52.8%.

What they're saying: That estimate is down from -51.2% on May 29 and -40.4% on May 28.

Why it matters: Recent economic reports have shown slightly improving numbers, but the Atlanta Fed's model suggests the overall trend is projecting a worse quarter than most economists had as even their worst-case scenario only weeks ago.

  • The 10 percentage point decline from last week's estimates is based on Monday's ISM report on business and the construction spending report from the U.S. Census Bureau.

By the numbers: Expectations for real personal consumption expenditures declined from -56.5% to -58.1% and expectations for real gross private domestic investment decreased from -61.5% to -62.6%, the Atlanta Fed noted.

What's next: Today's data will be closely watched with the release of IHS Markit and ISM's nonmanufacturing indexes for May and the ADP private payrolls report potentially offering some good news for investors.

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Dion Rabouin, author of Markets
Sep 1, 2020 - Economy & Business

The bond market's tug of war

Investors bought the dip in U.S. Treasuries on Monday following a significant move higher in yields on longer-dated maturities after the Fed's Jackson Hole symposium last week. Investors especially bought the 30-year bond, which saw yields rise to the highest level since mid-June on Friday.

Why it matters: A tug of war is developing in the bond market as inflation expectations are rising thanks to unprecedented central bank and government stimulus measures globally.

Updated 8 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 10 p.m. ET: 32,471,119 — Total deaths: 987,593 — Total recoveries: 22,374,557Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 10 p.m. ET: 7,032,524 — Total deaths: 203,657 — Total recoveries: 2,727,335 — Total tests: 99,483,712Map.
  3. States: "We’re not closing anything going forward": Florida fully lifts COVID restaurant restrictions — Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam tests positive for coronavirus.
  4. Health: Young people accounted for 20% of cases this summer.
  5. Business: Coronavirus has made airports happier places The expiration of Pandemic Unemployment Assistance looms.
  6. Education: Where bringing students back to school is most risky.
Mike Allen, author of AM
11 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Biden pushes unity message in new TV wave

A fresh Joe Biden ad, "New Start," signals an effort by his campaign to make unity a central theme, underscoring a new passage in his stump speech that says he won't be a president just for Democrats but for all Americans.

What he's saying: The ad — which began Friday night, and is a follow-up to "Fresh Start" — draws from a Biden speech earlier in the week in Manitowoc, Wisconsin: