Illustration: Lazaro Gamio/Axios

It's President Trump's move now that he got the rate cut he's been asking for since March, but Fed chair Jerome Powell stopped just short of giving him and the market everything they wanted at the Fed's policy meeting Wednesday.

Why it matters: Powell's cut is the central bank's latest effort to address the U.S. economy's current bipolar state: While consumers are confident and continue to spend, the significant pullback in the manufacturing and transportation sectors shows that businesses are not.

On one side: Tuesday's rock-solid U.S. consumer confidence reading was the latest sign that Americans feel good.

  • Commerce Department data Friday showed consumer spending, which makes up the lion's share of the U.S. economy, increased 4.3% in the second quarter, while government spending rose 5%, the biggest boost in a decade.

On the other side: Those numbers fly in the face of data on business investment that show firms dramatically slowing down spending and delaying big projects because of the uncertainty caused by the trade war.

  • Nonresidential investment fell 0.6% in Q2, the first drop since 2015, and residential investment decreased for a sixth straight period.
  • Readings on the U.S. manufacturing sector have fallen for 6 straight months — nearing an outright contraction — and the freight industry also has been slowing for the better part of the year.

The big picture: "Something has got to change," Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, tells Axios. "Either consumers hold tough and cheer up businesses and they resume investing again, or businesses lose faith and cause consumers to pack it in, and we go into recession."

  • Which way the economy goes depends on Trump, Zandi says. While he continued to heckle the Fed on Twitter Wednesday after the rate-cut decision, it's Trump's tariffs and trade war with China that will determine whether the economy gets back on track or not.

Where it stands: As Powell mentioned during his press conference, the current cease-fire in the trade war has settled business owners somewhat, but further aggression will likely see more companies in the trade sector and other parts of the economy start to show negative effects.

  • "Confidence is all about the labor market right now and, somewhat paradoxically, because companies are not investing in capital goods, that might be creating more demand for labor," Tendayi Kapfidze, chief economist at LendingTree, told Axios. "Is it sustainable? I think the longer we go without a resolution to this trade issue, things start to get more vulnerable."

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Robert Mueller speaks out on Roger Stone commutation

Former Special Counsel Robert Mueller testifies before the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence on Capitol Hill on Wednesday July 24, 2019. Photo: The Washington Post / Contributor

Former special counsel Robert Mueller responded to claims from President Trump and his allies that Roger Stone was a "victim" in the Justice Department's investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election, writing in a Washington Post op-ed published Saturday: "He remains a convicted felon, and rightly so."

Why it matters: The rare public comments by Mueller come on the heels of President Trump's move to commute the sentence of his longtime associate, who was sentenced in February to 40 months in prison for crimes stemming from the Russia investigation. The controversial decision brought an abrupt end to the possibility of Stone spending time behind bars.

Trump dons face mask during Walter Reed visit

Trump wearing a face mask in Walter Reed National Military Medical Center on July 11. Photo: Alex Edelman/AFP via Getty Images

President Trump wore a face mask during his Saturday visit to Walter Reed National Military Medical Center, according to AP.

Why it matters: This is the first known occasion the president has appeared publicly with a facial covering as recommended by health officials since the coronavirus pandemic began, AP writes.

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Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 5:30 p.m. ET: 12,607,510 — Total deaths: 562,338 — Total recoveries — 6,948,863Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 5:30 p.m. ET: 3,228,884 — Total deaths: 134,600 — Total recoveries: 983,185 — Total tested: 38,919,421Map.
  3. Public health: Jimmy and Rosalynn Carter: "Please wear a mask to save lives" Fauci hasn't briefed Trump on the coronavirus pandemic in at least two months — We're losing the war on the coronavirus.
  4. Food: How the coronavirus pandemic boosted alternative meat.
  5. Sports: Charge of "money grab" by college football.
  6. World: India reimposes lockdowns as coronavirus cases soar.