Apr 7, 2020 - Economy & Business

Americans think the stock market will still rise as the rest of the economy sinks

Dion Rabouin, author of Markets
Adapted from Federal Reserve Bank of New York; Chart: Axios Visuals

Americans are more worried than ever about losing their jobs, their household income and the equity in their homes, but one thing they are not worried about is the stock market.

The state of play: The Fed's latest survey of consumer expectations shows "a significant deterioration in households’ expectations regarding their labor market and financial situation, a decline seen across all age, education, and income groups," but respondents also reported an unprecedented spike in expectations for the stock market to rise.

Market analysts don't agree: Even in a best-case scenario in which coronavirus cases peak in the next week and the economy starts to reopen later this month, analysts at JPMorgan believe the losses in equity prices will only recover next year.

  • “The U.S. will experience a slower rebound due to expected lingering damage to labor and credit markets. .. a significant wave of layoffs and business closures will continue to weigh on demand," Bruce Kasman, head of economic research at JPMorgan, said in a note to clients.

Of note: JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned, “At a minimum, we assume that [COVID-19] will include a bad recession combined with some kind of financial stress similar to the global financial crisis of 2008,” in his annual letter to shareholders.

Go deeper: Investment professionals are selling while mom and pop buy the coronavirus dip

Go deeper

6 million white-collar jobs could be at risk in second wave of coronavirus layoffs

Photo: Spencer Platt/Getty Images

Close to 6 million jobs are at risk of being lost in coming months as a second wave of coronavirus-induced layoffs is headed for the U.S., according to a new report from Bloomberg Economics.

What's happening: The job cuts are expected to include higher-paid supervisors in sectors where frontline workers have been hit first, such as restaurants and hotels. It also includes the knock-on effects to connected industries such as professional services, finance and real estate.

Updated 11 hours ago - Health

U.S. coronavirus updates

Data: The Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins; Map: Andrew Witherspoon/Axios. This graphic includes "probable deaths" that New York City began reporting on April 14.

The Department of Health and Human Services moved on Thursday to require that an individual's race, ethnicity, age and sex be submitted to the agency with novel coronavirus test results.

Why it matters: Some cities and states have reported the virus is killing black people at disproportionately high rates. There are gaps in the national picture of how many people of color are affected, since the data has not been a requirement for states to collect or disclose.

Coronavirus cases spike in Texas, Oregon and Arizona

Data: The COVID Tracking Project, state health departments; Map: Andrew Witherspoon, Sara Wise, Naema Ahmed/Axios

Texas, Arizona and Oregon saw significant spikes last week in new coronavirus infections, while cases also continued to climb in a handful of states where steady increases have become the norm.

Why it matters: Nationwide, new cases have plateaued over the past week. To get through this crisis and safely continue getting back out into the world, we need them to go down — a lot.