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Data: New York Fed; Chart: Axios Visuals

Americans expect stuff to get a lot pricier.

Why it matters: Even though inflation may not actually rise to expected levels, the expectations alone can affect behavior.

  • “Some research shows when consumers expect higher inflation they pull back on spending,” MacroPolicy Perspectives founder Julia Coronado said.

By the numbers: According to the New York Fed’s August Survey of Consumer Expectations, respondents see the rate of inflation rising to 5.2% a year from now, up from 4.9% in last month’s survey.

  • Three years from now, the inflation rate is expected to be 4.0%, up from 3.7% last month.
  • Both figures represent the highest readings since the survey began in 2013.

State of play: Business anecdotes continue to confirm that inflation remains a challenge.

  • “Unfortunately, inflation is higher than we even thought in the third quarter,” 3M CFO Monish Patolawala said at a Morgan Stanley conference on Monday. “Despite taking price up … we are seeing inflation outstrip price.”

What to watch: The August Consumer Price Index report, which will be published at 8:30 ET this morning, will give a fresh update on what inflation looks like today.

Go deeper

Transcripts analysis reveals the word on Wall Street in 2021

Expand chart
Data: Sentieo; Note: Chart also includes mentions of “inflationary,” “supply chains” and “variants;” Chart: Baidi Wang/Axios

“Supply chain,” “inflation” and “variant” were among the new top words mentioned at least once on Wall Street calls this year, according to an analysis of transcripts by Sentieo, a research firm.

Why it matters: All the chatter about bottlenecks, rising prices and variant spread that led to more factory shutdowns is another sign of just how big of a headache it was for corporate America (and consumers) this year.

Updated 46 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Omicron dashboard

Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios

  1. Health: The end of the Omicron wave is in sight — Transplants rebound from COVID lull — Omicron hits American hospitals disproportionately hard
  2. Vaccines: WHO: No evidence that healthy children, teens need boosters — Kids' COVID vaccination rates are particularly low in rural America — Starbucks drops worker vaccine or test requirement after SCOTUS ruling
  3. Politics: Biden concedes U.S. should have done more testing — Arizona says it "will not be intimidated" by Biden on anti-mask school policies— Government website for free COVID tests launches early
  4. World: WHO: COVID health emergency could end this year — Greece imposes vaccine mandate for people 60 and older
  5. Variant tracker

Highlights from Biden's marathon 2-hour press conference

President Biden answers questions during a news conference in the East Room of the White House on Jan. 19. Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

President Biden Wednesday marked the end of his first year in office with a marathon press conference from the White House East Room, during which he defended his record in office and made headlines on several fronts.

Why it matters: It was only Biden's second solo presser while in office. The president said he would support splitting his flagship budget bill, the Build Back Better Act, to pass it in increments. He also called on the Federal Reserve to do more against inflation, and predicted that Russia will invade Ukraine.