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While other political issues are embroiled in controversy — immigration, trade, and foreign policy, to name a few — the United States' economy seems to be in good shape, causing President Trump to often tout positive economic indicators:

A tweet previously embedded here has been deleted or was tweeted from an account that has been suspended or deleted.

The big picture: Unemployment is dropping, applications for disability benefits are plunging, and millennials are finally moving out on their own. But with the threat of a trade war on the horizon and signs that the economy may be soon slowing, there are worries about how long the boom can last.

The good, per CNBC:
  • Millennials are moving out: Millennials, the largest generation in the labor force, are leaving the nest and increasingly heading out on their own,
  • Disability applications are plunging: Fewer than 1.5 million Americans applied for disability benefits in 2017, "the lowest since 2002." Trump touted this statistic in a Saturday morning tweet.
  • Unemployment is dropping: Last week, the number of people filing for unemployment benefits was at 218,000, below the expected 220,000.
  • Homebuilding surged: U.S. homebuilding hit its highest level in May since July 2007.
  • Consumers are optimistic: Consumer sentiment hit its highest level in three months. University of Michigan's chief economist Richard Curtin told CNBS: "Greater certainty about future income and job prospects have become the main drivers of more favorable purchase plans."
Yes, but:
  • The threat of a trade war between the U.S. and its allies is concerning and some economists fear that prolonged economic retaliation could weaken crucial American alliances.
  • The Leading Economic Index fell short of expectations in May, after increasing only .2% instead of .4%. Ataman Ozyildirim, director of business cycles and growth research at The Conference Board, told CNBC: "The U.S. LEI still points to solid growth but the current trend, which is moderating, indicates that economic activity is not likely to accelerate."
  • While homebuilding surged as mentioned above, there was a drop in homebuilding permits for the second month, which "suggested housing market activity will remain moderate."

Go deeper

Dan Primack, author of Pro Rata
1 hour ago - Economy & Business

Peloton stock tanks on report of production halt

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

Peloton stock fell by as much as 25% on Thursday, following a CNBC report that the connected fitness company will temporarily halt production on its bikes and treadmills.

Why it matters: Peloton is viewed by many as a proxy for consumer behavior in the pandemic era, as its popularity surged when gyms closed and people wanted to exercise at home.

Updated 1 hour ago - Politics & Policy

Omicron dashboard

Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios

  1. Health: Omicron pushes COVID deaths toward 2,000 per day — The pandemic-proof health care giant.
  2. Vaccines: No evidence that healthy children, teens need boosters, WHO says — Starbucks drops worker vaccine or test requirement after SCOTUS ruling — Kids' COVID vaccination rates are particularly low in rural America.
  3. Politics: Biden concedes U.S. should have done more testing — Arizona says it "will not be intimidated" by Biden on anti-mask school policies.
  4. World: American Airlines flight to London forced to turn around over mask dispute — WHO: COVID health emergency could end this year — Greece imposes vaccine mandate for people 60 and older.
  5. Variant tracker
Updated 2 hours ago - World

Biden cleans up comments about Russia invading Ukraine

Photo: Doug Mills-Pool/Getty Images

President Biden sought to clarify his suggestion that a "minor incursion" by Russia into Ukraine may not draw the same response as a large invasion, telling reporters Thursday that "Russia will pay a heavy price" if any troops cross the border.

Why it matters: Some officials in Kyiv saw Biden's comments as inviting Russian aggression.