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While other political issues are embroiled in controversy — immigration, trade, and foreign policy, to name a few — the United States' economy seems to be in good shape, causing President Trump to often tout positive economic indicators:

A tweet previously embedded here has been deleted or was tweeted from an account that has been suspended or deleted.

The big picture: Unemployment is dropping, applications for disability benefits are plunging, and millennials are finally moving out on their own. But with the threat of a trade war on the horizon and signs that the economy may be soon slowing, there are worries about how long the boom can last.

The good, per CNBC:
  • Millennials are moving out: Millennials, the largest generation in the labor force, are leaving the nest and increasingly heading out on their own,
  • Disability applications are plunging: Fewer than 1.5 million Americans applied for disability benefits in 2017, "the lowest since 2002." Trump touted this statistic in a Saturday morning tweet.
  • Unemployment is dropping: Last week, the number of people filing for unemployment benefits was at 218,000, below the expected 220,000.
  • Homebuilding surged: U.S. homebuilding hit its highest level in May since July 2007.
  • Consumers are optimistic: Consumer sentiment hit its highest level in three months. University of Michigan's chief economist Richard Curtin told CNBS: "Greater certainty about future income and job prospects have become the main drivers of more favorable purchase plans."
Yes, but:
  • The threat of a trade war between the U.S. and its allies is concerning and some economists fear that prolonged economic retaliation could weaken crucial American alliances.
  • The Leading Economic Index fell short of expectations in May, after increasing only .2% instead of .4%. Ataman Ozyildirim, director of business cycles and growth research at The Conference Board, told CNBC: "The U.S. LEI still points to solid growth but the current trend, which is moderating, indicates that economic activity is not likely to accelerate."
  • While homebuilding surged as mentioned above, there was a drop in homebuilding permits for the second month, which "suggested housing market activity will remain moderate."

Go deeper

38 mins ago - Politics & Policy

First look: The LCV's $4M ad buy

A screenshot from a new League of Conservation Voters ad supporting Rep. Stephanie Murphy.

The League of Conservation Voters and Climate Power are aiming another $4 million worth of ads at centrist House Democrats, urging them to support the climate provisions in President Biden’s $3.5 trillion budget reconciliation package, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: Progressive groups are trying to counter the onslaught of conservative money pouring into swing districts. Both sides are trying to define Biden’s Build Back Better Agenda and pressure lawmakers to support — or oppose — the legislation scheduled for a vote in the House this week.

38 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Shutdown Plan B

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

The Senate will hold a futile vote Monday night — just 72 hours before a potential shutdown — on a House-passed bill to fund the government through Dec. 3 and raise the debt limit.

Why it matters: The bill is going to fail. Period. But then comes Plan B: A "clean" continuing resolution — stripped of language about raising the debt limit — that Democrats spent the past week preparing, Axios is told.

Glenn Youngkin's play: Forever- and Never-Trumpers

Glenn Youngkin in Harrisonburg, Virginia, on Friday. Photo: Win McNamee/Getty Images

Standing on a flatbed hitched to a John Deere tractor in red Rockingham County, Virginia, Glenn Youngkin decried California liberalism and bashed his rival, Terry McAuliffe. He also encouraged early voting. Two words he avoided: Donald Trump.

Driving the news: Youngkin, the Virginia Republican gubernatorial nominee, is mounting a serious challenge to McAuliffe — a former governor and veteran of Democratic politics. Axios caught up with him on Friday in Harrisonburg, Virginia.