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Expand chart
Data: Oil Change International and the Global Gas and Oil Network, with data from Rystad Energy; Chart: Danielle Alberti/Axios

America is poised to produce far more oil and natural gas over the next five years than any other country in the world, according to a new report.

Why it matters: It shows how America, already the world’s largest oil and gas producer, is poised to cement that position, with pivotal implications for geopolitics and climate change.

By the numbers: The United States could produce just over 24 billion barrels of oil equivalent over the next five years, according to a report by two advocacy groups, the Global Gas and Oil Network and Oil Change International, which analyzed projection data from research firm Rystad Energy.

  • This works out to be roughly 13.2 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, a figure that includes both oil and natural gas.
  • For context: The U.S. currently producing about 12 million barrels of oil a day.
  • Much of this growth is coming from the Permian Basin across West Texas and southeastern New Mexico, which the report says would account for nearly 40% of new U.S. oil and gas production in the next 30 years.

How it works: The accompanying chart, adapted from the groups’ report, is looking at projected production over this five-year time period from currently undeveloped reserves. This includes industry data, such as projects expected to receive final investment decisions.

The intrigue: The environmental groups released the report last week at the United Nations climate conference underway in Madrid, Spain.

  • The report concludes that carbon dioxide emissions from oil and gas in currently operating fields would push the world past the temperature rise limit — 1.5 degrees Celsius — that scientists say the world should stay under to avoid the worst impacts of a warming world.
  • “This is true even if global coal use were phased out overnight, and cement emissions were drastically reduced,” the report writes.

The other side: President Trump has often cited America’s plentiful oil and gas resources as evidence of the U.S.’s power in geopolitical debates, and he is likely to do so even more as production increases (if he wins a second term).

Go deeper:

Go deeper

54 mins ago - World

Scottish first minister vows independence referendum after election win

Scotland's First Minister and leader of the Scottish National Party, Nicola Sturgeon, reacts after being declared the winner of the Glasgow Southside seat at Glasgow counting centre in the Emirates Arena in Glasgow on Friday. Photo: Andy Buchanan /AFP via Getty Images

Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon announced plans Saturday for a second independence referendum once the pandemic has abated following the country's parliamentary elections.

The big picture: Sturgeon's Scottish National Party won 64 seats, one seat short of an outright majority in the 129-seat Parliament. But most seats went to pro-independence parties.

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A health worker moving an oxygen cylinder in a coronavirus ward of a hospital in New Delhi on May 8. Photo: Raj K Raj/Hindustan Times via Getty Images

India saw its deadliest day of the pandemic yet with more than 4,180 confirmed COVID-19 deaths reported Saturday.

Why it matters: The country has recorded more than 21.8 million coronavirus cases and 238,270 deaths since the pandemic began. The true numbers, however, are likely much higher, experts say, as the country battles a continued surge in cases that has left hospitals and health workers overwhelmed.

Updated 4 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

  1. Health: The end of quarantine — CDC updates guidance on airborne COVID-19.
  2. Politics: Oklahoma secures $2.6 million refund for hydroxychloroquine purchase — Why Biden's latest vaccine goal is his hardest yet.
  3. Vaccines: Pfizer begins application for full FDA approval of COVID-19 vaccine — Moderna says its COVID booster shot shows promise against variants.
  4. Economy: U.S. adds just 266,000 jobs in April, far below expectations.
  5. World: Asia faces massive new COVID surgeIndia records its deadliest day of the pandemic.
  6. Variant tracker: Where different strains are spreading.

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