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The U.S. will account for the largest share of global oil production increases over the next five years, according to an International Energy Agency report released Monday.

Expand chart
Data: IEA; Chart: Naema Ahmed/Axios

Why it matters: It's the latest sign that analysts see room for growth in the fracking-driven U.S. boom, even after years of surging output with mixed financial returns.

By the numbers: IEA's latest half-decade forecast sees the U.S. accounting for roughly 70% of the increase in global production growth, noting the U.S. "continues to dominate supply growth in the medium term."

  • The report sees the U.S. adding 4 million barrels by 2024 compared to last year's production levels.
  • The largest increases are slated to come from crude oil from shale formations, notably the Permian Basin region of Texas and New Mexico.
  • However, the rate of growth slows considerably during the latter part of the forecast period (see chart above).

Other key sources of global oil supply growth over the next half-decade include Brazil, Iraq, and Guyana, where Exxon and partners are planning to bring some huge offshore finds into production in coming years.

The big picture: The study sees worldwide industry investment in finding and developing new supplies growing for the third straight year, but with a twist.

  • "For the first time since the 2014 peak, investment in conventional resources is set to increase at a stronger pace than U.S. shale where investors prioritize capital discipline and shareholder returns," it states.

The intrigue: IEA also sees an inflection point in the shale patch. The world's largest energy companies, including Exxon, BP and Chevron, are playing a bigger role in the arena once dominated by independent companies.

Also, some of those independents are tapping the brakes on their spending levels. Add it all up and...

  • "2019 might be the first year where investment growth in shale assets passes from independents to big oil companies. This is a remarkable change for a sector which has hitherto been dominated by smaller operators," IEA said.

But, but, but: Count IEA among the mix of forecasters — both government and private — who have underestimated the extent of U.S. growth.

Consider that last year's version of the annual report saw total U.S. crude production reaching around 12 million barrels per day in 2021. Turns out the country's crude output has hit that threshold already.

Go deeper: Experts consistently underestimate U.S. oil production

Go deeper

Updated 2 hours ago - World

Myanmar's deposed leader Aung San Suu Kyi sentenced to 4 years in prison

An anti-coup protest in Yangon, Myanmar.Photo: Hkun Lat/Getty Images

A Myanmar court sentenced the country's ousted leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, on Monday to four years in prison on charges of "inciting public unrest" and breaking COVID-19 protocols, per the New York Times.

Why it matters: It's the first of several verdicts that could result in the 76-year-old Nobel laureate being imprisoned for the rest of her life. The 11 charges she faces have been widely criticised as politically motivated.

5 hours ago - World

Pope Francis denounces European governments' migrant response

Pope Francis adresses refugees at the Reception and Identification Centre (RIC) in Mytilene on the island of Lesbos on Sunday. Photo: Louisa Gouliamaki/Pool/AFP via Getty Images

Pope Francis criticized European countries' response to migrants and asylum seekers during his visit to a refugee camp on the Greek island of Lesbos Sunday.

Why it matters: The pope said "migration is a humanitarian crisis that concerns everyone," but little had changed in the global response to displaced peoples since his first visit to Lesbos five years ago, per a transcript of his remarks. "Human lives, real people, are at stake. ... let us stop this shipwreck of civilization!"

Chris Cuomo accuser: On-air "hypocrisy" spurred report

Journalist Chris Cuomo. Photo: Gilbert Carrasquillo/GC Images

A woman who accused fired CNN journalist Chris Cuomo of sexual misconduct said Sunday she decided to come forward after learning of his comments about women who made similar accusations about his brother. He denies her allegations.

Why it matters: Her attorney Debra Katz said in a statement that she heard "the hypocrisy" of his on-air words about his brother, former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, and was "disgusted by his efforts to try to discredit these women," so "retained counsel to report his serious sexual misconduct against her to CNN."

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