Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., and Democratic senators conduct a news conference about the Supreme Court nominee's threat to the ACA. Photo: Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call via Getty Images

ACA premiums would probably be going down next year if the Trump administration and congressional Republicans had simply left it alone, Brookings' Matt Fiedler says in a new analysis this morning.

The big picture: Insurers are raking in money this year, largely thanks to the very large premium hikes they enacted. They'll likely see a profit margin north of 10% on their ACA business this year, up from just 1.2% last year and losses in the years before.

  • Fiedler estimated what would happen if the regulatory status quo at the beginning of 2018 had carried over into 2019. In that world, cost-sharing payments would still be gone, but the individual mandate would remain in place and the expansion of short-term plans wouldn't have happened.
  • In that hypothetical policy environment, insurers probably would have reduced their premiums by an average of 4.3% next year, he found.

Premiums are actually falling in a few markets.

  • Louisiana is the latest. ACA premiums in the state will drop by an average of 6.4%, according to The Advocate.
  • Average premiums in Minnesota are also set to decline next year, largely thanks to the state's reinsurance program.

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Pennsylvania GOP asks Supreme Court to halt mail-in ballot extension

Applications for mail-in ballots in Reading, Pennsylvania. Photo: Ben Hasty/MediaNews Group/Reading Eagle via Getty Images

Republicans in Pennsylvania on Monday asked the U.S. Supreme Court to halt a major state court ruling that extended the deadlines for mail-in ballots to several days after the election, The Morning Call reports.

Why it matters: It's the first election-related test for the Supreme Court since the death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, and could decide the fate of thousands of ballots in a crucial swing state that President Trump won in 2016. What the court decides could signal how it would deal with similar election-related litigation in other states.

Updated 10 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 3 p.m. ET: 33,217,895 — Total deaths: 999,273 — Total recoveries: 22,975,269Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 3 p.m. ET: 7,128,774 — Total deaths: 204,881 — Total recoveries: 2,766,280 — Total tests: 101,298,794Map.
  3. States: Cuomo extends New York moratorium on evictions until 2021
  4. Business: Companies are still holding back earnings guidance.
  5. Health: The childless vaccine — Why kids get less severe coronavirus infections.
  6. World: India the second country after U.S. to hit 6 million cases

Democrats on Trump tax story: "This is a national security question"

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Monday that the New York Times report that President Trump has hundreds of millions of dollars in debt coming due within the next four years is a "national security question," and that the public has a "right to know" the details of his financial obligations.

The big picture: Democrats have already leapt on the Times' bombshell, which Trump has dismissed as "total fake news," to attack the president for allegedly paying less in federal income taxes than the average middle-class household.