ACA mandate repeal may be less popular than GOP thinks

The tax bill that just passed the Senate eliminates the Affordable Care Act's individual mandate, and the House is likely to go along when Congress writes the final version. With the tax legislation moving so quickly and the mandate lost in the maze of so many other consequential provisions, we are not likely to have much public debate about this big change in health policy.

Reproduced from Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Poll, Nov. 8-13, 2017; Note: Question wording abbreviated, "Don't know"/"refused" responses not shown; Chart: Axios Visuals

Why it matters: If we did, even though the mandate has never been popular, our polling shows that the public does not necessarily want to eliminate it as part of tax reform legislation, once they understand how it works and what the consequences of eliminating it might be.

The back story: Republicans have targeted the ACA mandate because they want the $318 billion in savings the Congressional Budget Office says they would get to help them pay for their tax cuts. (The change would save money because fewer people would get federal subsidies on the ACA marketplaces or apply for Medicaid coverage.)

They have also targeted the mandate because they think it's so unpopular. Our polls have consistently shown that the mandate is the least popular element of the ACA and in the abstract, more Americans (55%) would eliminate the mandate than keep it (42%).

Yes, but: When people know how the mandate actually works, and are told what experts believe is likely to happen if it's eliminated, most Americans oppose repealing it in the tax plan.

  • When people learn that they will not be affected by the mandate if they already get insurance from their employer or from Medicare or Medicaid, 62% oppose eliminating it.
  • When people are told that eliminating the mandate would increase premiums for people who buy their own coverage, as the CBO says it will, they also flip, with 60% opposing eliminating the mandate.
  • And when they're told that 13 million fewer people will have health coverage – another CBO projection – 59% oppose eliminating the mandate.

The bottom line: Many people change their minds when they learn more about facts and consequences, which happens as the lights shine brighter on them in legislative debates. This happened to the “skinny repeal" proposal, and it would happen to single payer.

But as the tax legislation rushes through Congress and heads to the final negotiations, there is almost no chance for the public to grasp the tradeoffs that would come from eliminating the mandate and who is affected and who is not. If they did, the polling suggests, eliminating the mandate might prove far less popular than Republicans seem to think it is.

David McCabe 4 hours ago
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Pressure grows on Facebook over data scandal

Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg walks with trees behind him
Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg. Photo: Drew Angerer / Getty Images

The number of calls for investigations into Trump-linked Cambridge Analytica's illicit gathering of Facebook data grew on Sunday.

What they're saying: There are concerns over Cambridge Analytica, which did work for the Trump campaign, gathering the data on millions of Facebook users. And there are also worries that the social platform didn't handle the incident properly, prompting lawmakers to raise their voices over the past few days on both sides of the pond.

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The high stakes for AT&T's courtroom showdown

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AT&T’s $85 billion attempt to buy Time Warner and its way into the content business goes to trial on Monday, kicking off a courtroom battle with the Justice Department that could stretch on for two months.

Why it matters: When the deal was announced nearly 18 months ago, it was viewed as a fairly sure thing. But its prospects gradually dimmed as President Trump criticized it from the campaign trail and DoJ moved to block it. The outcome of the case will not only determine AT&T's future, but also the future of tech, media and telecom deals in general.