Price pressures persisted in October
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Inflation remained hot in October, according to data from the Labor Department released on Tuesday.
Why it matters: The Consumer Price Index shows that even as gasoline prices steadied, inflation pressures elsewhere remained stubborn.
By the numbers: CPI rose 0.4% last month, slowing from the 0.6% increase in September.
- Gasoline prices gained 1% in October, a sharp slowdown from the 9.1% surge in September, the Labor Department said.
- Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, advanced 0.3% for the third straight month, with higher prices for recreation, medical care, car insurance and airline fares contributing to the increase.
Of note: The Labor Department did not publish year-over-year inflation rates for October. Last year's government shutdown left a gap in the data that prevents direct comparisons with October 2025.
- But if one assumes the October 2025 readings were halfway between September and November, year-over-year inflation comes to 4% — or 2.8% excluding food and energy.
- That compares with September's annual inflation rate of 3.7%, or 2.6% excluding food and energy.
The big picture: The inflation report was already shaping up to be a crucial piece of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision next month. But the stakes grew just hours before its release when Fed governor Christopher Waller raised the prospect of a larger-than-usual rate hike if inflation remains stubbornly elevated.
- In a speech, Fed governor Christopher Waller said a half-point rate hike should be considered next month if core inflation rose by at least 0.3% in October — exactly what Tuesday's report showed.
- The yield on the two-year Treasury note, which is particularly sensitive to expectations for Fed interest rate policy, jumped 0.13% on Tuesday following Waller's comments and the CPI report.
What to watch: The report also offers a fresh measure of the inflation problem that helped shape last week's midterm elections.
- Nearly nine in 10 voters said the cost of living was a "crucial" or "major" factor in their vote in last week's midterms, according to national exit polling data.
- Democrats won on promises to lower prices for groceries and other essentials. Now they face the more difficult task of delivering on their promises, with limited power to reverse years of price increases.
The bottom line: Inflation remains stubbornly hot, strengthening the case for another Fed rate hike and prolonging the cost-of-living pressures that have frustrated American households.
Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional details.
