Low unemployment, but job worries persist

Americans have conflicting views of the job market: They are more worried about unemployment rising nationwide, even as they are more confident that they could find another job if they lost their own.

Driving the news: The perceived probability that unemployment will rise over the next year climbed to 45.3% in October, the highest since April 2020, according to the New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations — an increase driven by those without a college degree.

Yes, but: The perceived probability of finding another job if one lost their current position rose to 46.5%, the highest in about a year.

• Americans' perceived probability of losing their jobs over the next year also edged higher, rising 0.4 percentage point, to 13.9%.

State of play: The mixed outlook underscores an unusual feature of today's labor market — hiring is picking up and unemployment remains historically low, but finding work can still be a prolonged struggle.

The backdrop: The October jobs report showed that employers added a surprisingly robust 165,000 jobs last month. The unemployment rate has held in the narrow range of 4% to 4.2% for five consecutive months.

• But Friday's data also showed that 2 million Americans have been unemployed for at least six months, accounting for more than 25% of all unemployed workers.
• The average spell of unemployment climbed to 27.1 weeks in October, the longest since December 2021. (Excluding the pandemic, it's the highest reading since August 2016.)

Of note: Ahead of the October Consumer Price Index report — out tomorrow — the New York Fed said that inflation expectations were unchanged last month at 3.9% over the next year, 3.3% over three years and 3% over five years.