Gen Z dumps Republicans
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Young voters swung so hard toward Democrats in Tuesday's midterms that it raises new doubts about whether Republicans can build a lasting coalition among Americans under 30.
Why it matters: Trump's success with Gen Z voters, especially young men, fueled talk of a generational shift toward Republicans. Tuesday's results tell a different story.
By the numbers: An estimated 66% of voters ages 18–29 backed Democratic House candidates Tuesday, compared with 31% for Republicans, according to Tufts University's CIRCLE, which analyzed preliminary data from the NORC Civic Health & Elections Project.
- That's a 35-point Democratic advantage, compared with 14 points in the 2024 national House exit poll, when young voters favored Democrats 56%–42%.
- Democratic support among men under 30 rose from 51% in 2024 to 59% in 2026. Among young women, it climbed from 61% to 70%, according to 2024 exit polling by Edison Research and CIRCLE's updated 2026 analysis of NORC data.
- Young white voters favored Democrats 63%–34% in the SSRS survey, after splitting 50%–48% in 2024.
State of play: Polls flashed warning signs for Republicans in the final weeks before Election Day.
- An October Harvard Youth Poll found voters ages 18–29 who said they would definitely vote favored Democrats 63%–26%.
- Just 9% of young Americans said the country was headed in the right direction.
Zoom in: Democrats drew overwhelming support from young voters in major statewide races, according to preliminary SSRS polling.
- In Texas, 76% of voters under 30 supported Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico, while 73% backed Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gina Hinojosa, according to CIRCLE's state analysis.
- In Georgia, 70% backed Democratic gubernatorial candidate Keisha Lance Bottoms. More than 60% favored Democratic candidates for Senate and governor in Ohio.
- In Iowa, where young voters backed Trump in 2024, Republican Senate candidate Ashley Hinson lost significant ground with the group, according to AP Voter Poll data. Democrat Josh Turek won the Senate seat, while Rob Sand captured the governorship.
What they're saying: "Gen Z voters are proving that they have the power not just to decide races, but to be the decisive factor in flipping both chambers of Congress," Santiago Mayer, executive director of the Gen Z-led voter outreach organization Voters of Tomorrow, said in a statement.
- The group credited its youth outreach in Iowa with helping Democrats Christina Bohannan, Lindsay James and Sarah Trone Garriott win their U.S. House races.
Zoom out: CIRCLE found 79% of young Black voters and 71% of young Latino voters backed Democratic House candidates.
Caveat: Young voters accounted for an estimated 11% of Tuesday's electorate, compared with 12% in the 2022 midterms, according to CIRCLE's analysis of NORC data.
- That smaller share doesn't tell us whether turnout among eligible young voters rose or fell. Their numbers could have grown even as a larger overall electorate reduced their share.
- Different polling methods in 2024 and 2026 also complicate precise comparisons. The NORC and SSRS surveys produced different estimates of Democratic support.
Yes, but: Republicans haven't necessarily lost the young conservatives who helped Trump win in 2024.
- An earlier More in Common study identified a faction of younger Trump supporters embracing more hard-line views on gender roles and religion.
The bottom line: The surveys can't tell us whether those voters switched parties or a different mix of young Americans showed up Tuesday.
