New data shows labor market strength in September
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Employers posted more job openings and hired more workers in September, in a new sign that the overall labor market remains resilient, AI-related job losses notwithstanding.
The big picture: Every major component of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey report, which gives the richest data on what is happening to the labor market beneath the headline numbers, pointed to conditions improving in September.
- The October employment report is due out Friday, and analysts expect it to confirm solid job growth and a low, steady unemployment rate at the onset of autumn.
By the numbers: The number of job openings rose by 333,000 in September, pushing the rate of openings to its highest since April. The number of hires was up by 131,000, pushing the hiring rate up a tick as well.
- Also pointing to solid labor market conditions: The number of people voluntarily quitting their jobs — a sign of confidence in their ability to find a new position — rose by 321,000. That pushed the quits rate up two-tenths to 2.1%, its highest since June 2025.
- The number of layoffs and discharges fell by 127,000, bringing the rate at which people involuntarily lost their jobs to 1%, remaining near historic lows.
The intrigue: The industry breakdowns show that job opportunities vary significantly across sectors, with blue-collar sectors looking better than many predominantly office-based sectors.
- The rate of job openings in manufacturing rose 0.4 percentage point, as did the rate of openings in the construction sector and in transportation, warehousing and utilities.
- By contrast, the rate of openings in finance and insurance fell 0.5 percentage point, and federal government openings were down 0.4 point.
- The pattern wasn't uniform, however, as opening rates climbed for both the information and professional and business services sectors.
State of play: Taken together, the JOLTS data paints a picture of a labor market that is holding up quite well despite various headwinds, including AI-related productivity gains and spiking energy prices due to the Iran war.
- It supports the view held by Federal Reserve leadership that the labor market is basically holding up fine and that more attention should be on inflation trends at this moment.
