Democrats could learn wrong message from a blowout victory
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Democrats are poised to romp in today's election — easily winning the House and, according to most forecasts, flipping the Senate too. Yet the party itself is less popular than the IRS. Even the GOP has a better brand.
Why it matters: There's a difference between a blowout and a mandate. Confusing the two could tempt Democrats to overread the results and forget the serious credibility problem they still face heading into 2028.
The big picture: Democrats have done a lot of things right to position themselves for a big night. They recruited candidates who've put red state Senate races that seemingly were beyond reach, within their grasp. Many of those candidates vastly outraised their Republican opponents.
- But polls across the board still show a lesser-of-two-evils election — or as one Republican tied to President Trump's political operation described it, a contest of which party voters hate more. Voters are more eager to disempower Trump than to empower Democrats.
By the numbers: Just 29% of registered voters have a positive opinion of the Democratic Party vs. 38% who view the Republican Party positively, according to a pre-election NBC News poll.
- The same poll showed Democrats with a 7-point lead in the congressional generic ballot, 52 to 45.
- And nearly 6 in 10 voters who plan to back Democrats in the election said their vote is about stopping Trump and Republican policies — vs. 4 in 10 who said they were more motivated to help Democrats enact their policies, per an October CBS News/YouGov poll.
Zoom in: Many Democrats say they're determined not to repeat the mistake they made after the last midterms in 2022. They defied predictions of a red wave and saw it as an endorsement of Joe Biden and their party — when voters actually were increasingly angry.
- The post-2022 takeaway ultimately laid the groundwork for Trump's return to the White House after the 2024 election.
- Democrats won the House in the 2018 midterms — and went on to impeach Trump the following year. This time, presumed House Speaker Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) isn't talking about another Trump impeachment — his 100-day agenda is focused on affordability.
Zoom out: Other Democrats warn that it's been easier to run against Trump when he's actually in office. Making him the face of the election didn't work in 2024, and it might not in 2028, either.
- At the Third Way gathering in South Carolina earlier this year, Democratic strategist Jim Messina told a crowd of operatives and party leaders, "We have no economic message. And if we don't get one, we're not going to win" in 2028.
Flashback: The 2006 midterms also featured a Democratic uprising against an unpopular war and an unpopular president. Democrats flipped the House and Senate in a major rebuke of President George W. Bush.
- But the party that year had a net-positive party image of 4 points in NBC polling. Today, it's 23 points underwater.
- Two years later in 2008 — with anti-Bush and anti-war backlash still running hot — Democrats harnessed Barack Obama's talents and calls for "change" to win back the White House.
- But a midterm blowout in 2026, if it materializes, will offer no guarantee the party will find an equally talented standard-bearer in 2028.
What they're saying: "It's not great for the Democrats ... for 2028," Bill McInturff, one of the pollsters who conducted the NBC survey, said of the Democratic Party's lousy image.
- "But I don't see it as a barrier for how well they can do in 2026 when midterms are about Trump and these economic numbers."
The bottom line: Ultimately, many top Democrats believe it will take a new presidential nominee — and likely one who wins in November 2028 — to fully repair the party's damaged brand.
Axios' Alex Thompson and Holly Otterbein contributed to this story.
