Shapiro looks like a 2028 powerhouse — with an asterisk
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Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro is an electoral juggernaut in America's biggest swing state — and he's widely seen as a likely contender for president in 2028. But strategists in both parties question how tested he really is.
- Shapiro's success — he's cruised to victory in multiple statewide races — has come with an asterisk: He hasn't faced a well-financed opponent in recent contests, leading some political insiders to see him as more of a wildcard than his resume suggests.
Why it matters: Shapiro's unfamiliarity with intense, bruising campaigns could become a liability in the 2028 Democratic primary, where if he was a top candidate, he'd be confronted with a barrage of attack ads, opposition research and rivals with deep pockets.
- A plugged-in Democratic operative in Pennsylvania suggested that because of Shapiro's lack of being tested, "it is totally possible that he has an incredible glass jaw — and that he is the Scott Walker of 2028."
- Walker was the swing-state Wisconsin governor who looked good on paper as a potential presidential candidate but flopped after entering the 2016 GOP primary.
Zoom in: In next week's election, Shapiro is running for a second four-year term as the Keystone State's governor. He's on pace to defeat Republican challenger Stacy Garrity by double digits, according to the latest polls.
- The money gap is gargantuan: Shapiro has dropped $42 million on campaign ads, according to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact.
Garrity, the state's treasurer, has spent just $3 million on ads — a drop in the ocean in a state as large as Pennsylvania, with its expensive advertising markets.
- It's not that Garrity prefers, say, door-knocking to TV ads. She's just outmatched: Campaign finance reports show she's only raised about $11 million this cycle, compared with Shapiro's $64 million.
- Making matters worse for Garrity, the Republican Governors Association (RGA) has not come to her rescue on the airwaves.
Christopher Nicholas, a longtime GOP strategist in Pennsylvania, said the dynamic has "allowed Shapiro to skate with essentially having a one-sided campaign."
- "A lot of people think he has a glass chin because he's never really had a million dollars of negative TV shoved down his throat in a week," Nicholas said.
Zoom out: Shapiro caught a break when he first ran for governor in 2022 against Republican Doug Mastriano, a far-right state senator widely viewed as a historically weak candidate disliked even by the GOP establishment.
- Mastriano, who was strapped for cash, spent just $2 million on ads that year. Shapiro and his allies spent $55 million.
- A conservative outside group invested $8 million on advertising in the election but abandoned the race that September after Shapiro embraced school vouchers, a priority for many on the right. The RGA stayed out of the race.
In both of his gubernatorial contests, Shapiro has run unopposed in the Democratic primaries, leaving him little experience of intra-party electoral battles.
- It was a similar story when Shapiro twice was elected as Pennsylvania's attorney general. He vastly outspent his Republican opponents.
What they're saying: Shapiro's allies argue that he's had token opposition precisely because he's a formidable candidate — that more talented Republicans don't want to waste their time and money running against such a hard-to-beat opponent with big fundraising chops. The governor has also sometimes cut off his GOP rivals' money spigots by courting Republican donors.
- "Sun Tzu was always about picking the battle you want to fight," said Doc Sweitzer, a Pennsylvania Democratic ad maker. "Josh has an incredible skill of picking the opponents."
- Asked for comment, Shapiro spokesperson Manuel Bonder said: "Winning elections in Pennsylvania and putting a check on Donald Trump is the only thing we're focused on — and believe it or not, it's harder than sitting at home giving unnamed quotes to Axios."
- Garrity spokesperson Matt Beynon responded: "No amount of money will heal the wounds Josh Shapiro's inflicted over the past four years, it's going to take new leadership."
The other side: Shapiro is far from the only potential Democratic presidential candidate who hasn't squared off against a top-notch statewide Republican candidate.
- Possible White House hopefuls from deep-blue territory — such as New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, or with little experience defeating Republicans statewide, like former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, have either never run in or never won remotely competitive general elections.
Flashback: Shapiro's critics make the case that regardless of why he hasn't been challenged much, he and his team haven't had to deal with reams of opposition research being dug up about him, or tens of millions of dollars in negative ads aired against him.
- One of the only times Shapiro came close to experiencing that was when he was under consideration to be former Vice President Kamala Harris' running mate in 2024 — and, they say, that didn't turn out well.
- Shapiro faced a mountain of tough press over topics on which he'd never faced significant scrutiny, such as a college op-ed piece in which he called Palestinians "too battle-minded" to exist peacefully with Israel.
- At the time, even some of Shapiro's closest supporters felt he didn't respond effectively to the negative articles.
