Inside the "To Catch a Predator" midterm ad wars
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Republicans and Democrats are flooding the midterm airwaves with explosive TV ads accusing their opponents of protecting pedophiles and child sexual abusers.
Why it matters: The advertising blitz underscores the lingering power of the Jeffrey Epstein scandal, which has fueled distrust of powerful figures and pushed allegations of child sexual abuse to the forefront of national politics.
- The controversy over the Trump administration's handling of the Epstein files — including allegations that officials sought to protect powerful figures by not releasing all of the files — has kept the issue in the headlines.
- The midterm ads that have followed have been bipartisan and are playing out in state and federal races.
By the numbers: Since Sept. 1, candidates and outside groups have aired at least $70 million in TV ads mentioning pedophilia, Epstein and allegations related to child sexual abuse, according to AdImpact.
- Of the 118 ads identified, 63 were sponsored by Democrats, 52 by Republicans and three by independents.
Driving the news: The issue has become a flashpoint in the competitive Senate race in Kansas, where Democrats unveiled three ads Tuesday attacking Republican Sen. Roger Marshall over his initial vote against a measure to force the Justice Department to release additional Epstein files.
- Meanwhile, the conservative Club for Growth has been airing an ad accusing pastor Adam Hamilton, Marshall's Democratic opponent, of mishandling sexual abuse allegations involving a church camp volunteer.
- The allegations date to 2005, when church leaders initially investigated accusations involving boys at the camp rather than immediately contacting police. Hamilton has released a commercial in which he denies a cover-up.
- The Club for Growth's ad closely resembles promotional materials for the new movie "Primetime," which is inspired by the former NBC TV series "To Catch a Predator."
In Texas, Democrats backing Senate candidate James Talarico have spent more than $8 million on ads attacking his opponent, state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R), over his office's initial offer of a plea deal calling for just one day in jail for a man accused of sexually abusing a child.
- Paxton says he agreed to the deal to spare a child abuse victim from having to testify in court a second time.
In North Carolina, meanwhile, Democrats have aired four ads accusing Republican Senate candidate Michael Whatley of appointing a convicted sex offender to a state GOP committee. Whatley has denied hiring the man.
- "It's an issue that goes to character and judgment," said John Anzalone, a veteran Democratic pollster who's advising Whatley's Democratic opponent, former Gov. Roy Cooper.
Behind the scenes: Private GOP polling in Kansas, provided to Axios, illustrates why strategists believe the attacks can resonate.
- After hearing allegations about Hamilton's handling of the church camp incident, 69% of Kansas voters surveyed said they were less likely to support him, strategists found.
State of play: Republicans' embrace of the attacks marks a striking turn for a party that spent months on the defensive over the Trump administration's resistance to releasing additional Epstein files.
- Some GOP strategists see the attacks as a way to put Democrats on defense as Republicans struggle to sell voters on Trump's agenda.
- Democrats have spent much of the campaign hammering Republicans over high prices. But with voters' views on the economy largely set, attack ads are increasingly focused on issues of character and judgment.
What they're saying: "Epstein reinforced the suspicion that powerful people protect each other and operate under different rules," Republican pollster Chris Wilson told Axios.
- "Allegations involving children are especially visceral, and [the collapse of trust in institutions] gives them added resonance."
