Election polling rocked by a new fake data scandal
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A self-described polling firm whose data was tracked by larger pollsters, news outlets and campaigns says all but one of its polls were fabricated.
Why it matters: It's at least the second instance of a polling operation acknowledging fabricated data this election cycle, raising concerns about confidence in legitimate pollsters as AI tools make fake results easier to produce.
Driving the news: Polling aggregator FiftyPlusOne investigated data from the firm, Wedgewood, and identified multiple irregularities.
- FiftyPlusOne had contacted the firm months earlier and received information about their leaders. One of the names Wedgewood identified as a leader of the firm matched that of an individual whom FiftyPlusOne confirmed had prior experience in the polling industry.
When Wedgewood was asked about the data discrepancies, FiftyPlusOne screenshotted the reply: "F--k you."
- Soon after, Wedgewood posted a statement on X saying it "wanted to test" whether an "entirely fabricated polling firm" could "gain traction." It said it had no real data behind the vast majority of its releases, but maintained that one crowdfunded Nebraska poll was legitimate.
The big picture: The scheme is reminiscent of Median Strategies, a fake firm that put out phony data points as a "short-term social experiment" earlier this year.
- This incident stands out because Wedgewood "got past the BS detectors from a number of prominent polling aggregators, ourselves included," FiftyPlusOne's Mary Radcliffe tells Axios.
- She contends that the operation, which went on for months and ensnared multiple figures in the industry, was not the social experiment Wedgewood claimed. "I just think they were trying to get ahead of the bad press that they knew was coming their way," she said.
- FiftyPlusOne, Nate Silver, Decision Desk and New York Times/Siena polling operation have issued statements or notices removing Wedgewood from their databases. The Times said it had listed 15 of the firm's surveys after receiving answers to detailed questions about its operations.
Axios' attempts to reach Wedgewood were unsuccessful. Our email returned an "Address not found" error. SoCal Strategies, a firm previously associated with one of the people FiftyPlusOne identified as a member of their team, told Axios he no longer works there and had not worked there for a year.
- "His actions are his own and do not reflect on SoCal Strategies," they added.
Zoom in: Politicians and pollsters have highlighted the consequences of Wedgewood's activities.
- Michigan Senate candidate Mallory McMorrow said Wedgewood showed her support in the single digits before she suspended her campaign, at odds with her internal polling.
- She said that donations slowed, volunteers were "devastated," and press "hounded" her "with calls to drop out."
- In Mississippi, Democratic Senate candidate Scott Colom's campaign cited a Wedgewood poll in a news release last week as evidence of his "massive momentum," the New York Times reported.
Wedgewood also solicited funding and support for its activities.
- Zachary Donnini, head of data science at Vote Hub, donated $50 to crowdfunding efforts for Wedgewood's Nebraska poll — which Wedgewood maintains was legitimate.
- As a founder of the Yale Youth Poll, Donnini said supporting up-and-comers, as he was led to believe those behind Wedgewood were, is personal to him.
- "This used to be a thing that happened on the ... 'election Twitter community' — more crowd funded polls where people would try to support each other. The polling industry is really struggling right now," he said, pointing to low response rates.
Zoom out: The incident could further erode confidence in independent pollsters, pollsters tell Axios.
- "This is the most disrespectful thing you can do within an industry is just create this fake setup, especially at a time when people don't trust polls," says Natalie Jackson, a veteran pollster who recently started her own company, Centerline Research & Strategy.
State of play: Radcliffe says she's not exactly sure how Wedgewood fabricated the data. But FiftyPlusOne warned in a Substack post that AI-powered tools for generating content have made it easier "to produce potentially bogus documentation of results that match the quality of those produced by legitimate research firms.
What we're watching: FCC chair Brendan Carr wrote Wednesday that there "has been a significant surge in entirely Fake Polls and Suppression Polls" this election cycle.
- He urged broadcasters to avoid "engaging in News Distortions or running Broadcast Hoaxes by airing Polls that would violate their regulatory obligations."
Go deeper: The AI deepfake election is starting to get litigious
