Russia nears U.S. satellite, raising alarm about intent
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A Russian satellite was tracked on Friday closely stalking a U.S.-owned commercial satellite — part of a space-based network that has supported Ukraine's military.
Why it matters: Aerospace analysts and space intelligence company LeoLabs told Axios it's a rare maneuver that raises the possibility of Russian interference with U.S. space equipment.
- The firm said in a statement Friday that the Russian satellite's movement "appears to be a deliberate approach toward" the U.S.-owned ICEYE-X36 imaging satellite, according to the company's tracking data.
Zoom in: As of Friday afternoon, Russia's Cosmos 2612 satellite was roughly three miles from ICEYE-X36, LeoLabs said. A day earlier they were more than 200 miles apart.
- Such behavior is "relatively uncommon" in low Earth orbit, it said, where assets can travel around 17,000 miles per hour.
What they're saying: "While the intent remains uncertain, the behavior warrants continued monitoring," LeoLabs said.
- The Defense Department declined to comment on Friday and Saturday.
- Spokespeople for ICEYE, a company founded in Finland, also declined to comment. The satellite is tied to ICEYE US, per multiple space tracking websites.
Threat level: A Ukrainian official told Axios the military works with the Finnish satellite company and uses its capabilities but said it was unclear if this specific ICEYE-X36 supports the country.
- In January, ICEYE announced it signed an agreement with "a customer within the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine" to "expand their cooperation in space-based intelligence" using their satellite constellation.
- The official added that the Ukrainian military wasn't aware of the satellite movements in recent days. It was, however, informed of similar maneuvers this past spring and summer.
- In May, a few Russian satellites began maneuvering around the ICEYE-X36, according to commercial space tracking data. The Space Force said the Cosmos satellites were positioned close to a "Western commercial radar satellite used by Ukraine for imagery intelligence."
- The U.S. military has repeatedly raised alarm over Russia's development of anti-satellite weaponry.
Between the lines: Aerospace analysts and legal experts said Russia's willingness to burn the satellite's fuel and change its altitude, orbital plane and speed to approach ICEYE-X36 is worrisome.
- Clayton Swope, a CSIS senior space fellow, said on Friday the distance is essentially "bumper-to-bumper."
- "This is all unusual, and it just points to a purposeful engagement between Russia and a Western-run satellite that's supporting Ukraine," Greg Gillinger, a space analyst with Integrity ISR, told Axios.
Context: Aaron Brynildson, a space law professor at the University of Mississippi, said while there's no strict legal limit on how close satellites can get to each other, countries generally don't get closer than six miles.
- At any closer distance, if "the target satellite and the pursuing satellite were to move at the same time, the likelihood they could crash into each other increases significantly," Brynildson said.
Big picture: The development comes as Ukraine is dealing with a satellite disruption in real time.
Go deeper: Zelensky says Musk-owned satellite system still restricted in Ukraine
Barak Ravid contributed to this report.
