Black voters test the socialist left's ceiling
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Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Stock: Getty Images
Black voters may determine whether Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) can build on breakthroughs in the 2026 elections.
Why it matters: This year's primaries showed that DSA's path runs through older Black voters who wield enormous influence in Democratic primaries — particularly in the South — but have been slower to embrace insurgent candidates.
By the numbers: Black Democrats are more likely to like than dislike leaders who identify as democratic socialists, but nearly two-thirds remain neutral toward them.
- 21% of Black Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents told Pew Research Center they like such leaders, compared with 11% who dislike them. Another 65% were neutral.
- Among Black Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, 23% of those ages 18–49 like leaders who identify as democratic socialists, compared with 20% of those 50 and older.
State of play: Angie Nixon's upset win in Florida's Democratic U.S. Senate primary made the Black state representative the first DSA member to win a major-party statewide nomination.
- Her politics blend labor organizing and civil-rights protest: The former union organizer fought voting-rights battles with sit-ins and a bullhorn and opened a bookstore amid Florida's school book bans, hosting Black-history workshops and organizing groups.
- Her vote share rose in precincts with younger and larger Black populations, an Axios analysis of election results found.
Donavan McKinney's Detroit victory also showed a DSA-backed candidate can break through in a center of Black political power.
- The DSA-endorsed state representative defeated Rep. Shri Thanedar 51.9%-48.1% in Michigan's 13th District, pairing deep Detroit roots and a legislative record with labor and local support.
Yes, but: A July Redbox Research poll for A Fight Worth Having found former Rep. Cori Bush (D-Mo.) leading Rep. Wesley Bell (D-Mo.) 52%–20% among voters under 35 and 46%–36% among those 35–49.
- But only 19% of the Black likely-primary electorate in the poll was under 50.
- Bell ultimately defeated Bush 59%-37%.
Zoom out: Nationally, 39% of Democratic-aligned adults under 30 like democratic socialist leaders, compared with 26% of those 50 and older.
- In 2016, an NBC analysis of 25 state exit polls found Bernie Sanders beat Hillary Clinton 52%-47% among Black voters under 30.
- In South Carolina's 2020 primary, Black voters made up 56% of the electorate, and 69% of Black voters over 45 backed Joe Biden, according to Edison exit polling.
Between the lines: New America's Theodore Johnson tells Axios older Black voters often impose a "viability hurdle" before taking a chance on candidates.
- Johnson said younger Black voters can be "central" to an insurgent coalition but "insufficient" without broader support.
What they're saying: Darius Jones of the National Black Empowerment Action Fund warns against reading frustration with establishment Democrats as socialist conversion.
- Younger Black voters are "increasingly impatient with the pace of results," he said, but that is "not a wholesale endorsement of the DSA in any way."
- Marcus Board Jr., a political science associate professor at Howard University, said DSA's difficulty connecting class politics to race is "definitely a hurdle."
The other side: DSA says it is "committed to growing our membership into a more diverse, multiracial, multigenerational movement" by organizing around Black workers, child care, housing and food security.
