Trump's Russia deal leaves GOP candidates with a Putin problem
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Photo illustration: Maura Kearns/Axios. Photo: Stefani Reynolds/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Republicans already saddled with Trump's unpopular policies in the midterms now face another awkward choice: whether to back his diesel deal with a dictator many of them despise.
Why it matters: The agreement President Trump struck with Russian President Vladimir Putin Friday is designed to ease the cost of living for U.S. consumers. But Republicans who pleaded for help with fuel prices now face a fresh dispute over Russia, with energy analysts questioning whether the deal will deliver the relief Trump is promising.
The big picture: With three weeks until Election Day, Republicans are trying to answer voter anger while keeping up with a president whose proposed fixes keep becoming political liabilities of their own.
- Trump's decision to lock arms with Putin adds another complication.
Driving the news: Weeks after signing a sweeping Russia sanctions law, Trump announced Friday that Russia would supply diesel to U.S. and global markets.
- The next day, Trump blamed Ukraine for soaring diesel prices and called for President Volodymyr Zelensky to be replaced, even as Russia continued attacking Ukrainian cities.
- Republicans who just supported squeezing Moscow have three options in the final sprint for control of Congress: defend Trump's reversal, break with him or stay quiet.
Zoom out: The diesel deal packs some of the GOP's biggest liabilities into one decision: the Iran war's economic fallout, the party's split over Russia and a president determined to make the election about himself.
- The deal also reverses Trump's own pressure campaign. Last year, he slapped an extra 25% tariff on India for buying Russian oil. On Oct. 2, he and other G7 leaders pledged to keep sanctions on Russia.
- Energy analysts also doubt the deal will do much for diesel prices, which averaged $6.28 a gallon Oct. 11, up 71% from a year earlier.
What they're saying: The White House pushed back on criticism of Trump's record: "President Trump has consistently proven his doubters wrong," White House spokesperson Davis Ingle said.
- A senior administration official said Trump is "laser-focused on bringing down costs, whether it's diesel with the Russians or importing Argentine beef. Some people might not like it, but he's thinking of what Americans are paying and what he can do about it."
Friction point: The internal pushback has been swift.
- Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) vowed to force a House vote blocking the oil purchases.
- Reps. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) and Michael McCaul (R-Texas), along with Sens. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska), Susan Collins (R-Maine), Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) and John Curtis (R-Utah), already criticized the deal by Sunday.
- Tillis told NBC News' "Meet the Press" that Trump's deal may violate a law that requires the White House to notify Congress before lifting sanctions.
- Even MAGA ally Laura Loomer denounced the deal as not only funding Russia but indirectly helping Iran by putting "money back into the coffers of the Islamic regime of Iran."
Yes, but: Some Republicans, like Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (Fla.) and Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso, backed the deal.
How we got here: Farm-state Republicans have pleaded with the White House to deliver diesel relief.
- Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) and others urged Trump to ban diesel exports, something the president embraced before the White House abruptly reversed and ruled out a ban.
- GOP candidates in key Senate races, like Iowa's Ashley Hinson and Michigan's Mike Rogers, have called for ending the Iran war after previously supporting it. Instead, Trump has defended it in vivid terms, saying Iran might have attacked Los Angeles and San Diego if not for his war.
Between the lines: Trump's unpopular positions collide with voter sentiment as he touts the war with Iran, the rise of data centers and his own popularity.
- His efforts to give Republicans something to campaign on leave candidates exposed through big promises, about-faces and proposals that won't materialize before voters cast their ballots.
Data centers: Sen. Jon Husted (R-Ohio) has faced Democratic attacks over data centers, an issue the National Republican Senatorial Committee has identified as a vulnerability. Yet Trump used a Husted rally last week to defend the projects: "Look, there's so much money to be made for Ohio. You can't just turn them off. They'll go to China."
Dividend checks: Voters have also rejected Trump's proposed $5,000 dividend checks that analysts say would cost $1.3 trillion. A September Reuters/Ipsos poll found 63% of Americans disapproved.
Trump: Trump has insisted the midterms should be a referendum on his presidency, telling Republicans at last month's convention to "pretend that I'm on the ballot."
- But a Pew Research Centerpoll released Thursday found 44% of registered voters view their congressional vote as a vote against Trump, compared with 19% who see it as a vote for him.
- Texas Senate nominee Ken Paxton privately blamed oil prices, the Iran war and the midterm convention for falling poll numbers.
The bottom line: For Republican candidates, the challenge isn't just selling Trump's record. It's keeping up with a president who continues to give them new decisions to defend.
