Dollars and doomers in the AI safety debate
Add Axios as your preferred source to
see more of our stories on Google.
Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Stock: Getty Images
I don't know if AI is going to destroy humanity. Neither do you.
- But here's what I do know: It's very difficult to have a sober conversation about this when there's so much money at stake.
This isn't an accusation of dishonesty. It's an observation that wealth, and the promise of wealth, has a way of putting blinders on even the best of intentions and the brightest of minds.
It's something I thought about a lot this past weekend, while finally reading "All the Devils Are Here" by Bethany McLean and Joe Nocera. It's an excellent 2010 book about the seeds of the Great Financial Crisis and its early days.
- Very few of the protagonists viewed themselves as engaging in risky or ethically questionable activities. In fact, most believed they were pursuing a noble imperative of enabling homeownership. This was true of lenders, bankers, regulators, and politicians.
- Doubts did emerge — including from inside the house — but they were extinguished by not wanting to upset the abundance cart. It was subconscious and consistent.
- The few public critics were ignored at best and attacked at worst.
The parallels aren't letter perfect. Just like other comparisons between the AI era and the GFC, like how securitizing compute might be like securitizing subprime mortgages or how Nvidia is becoming something of an uber-counterparty in the vein of an AIG.
- But history rarely repeats. It rhymes.
So many of today's financial incentives are to damn the torpedoes.
- The entire venture capital industry is now dependent on AI acceleration. So is Wall Street. And so are the politicians funded by such financiers and desirous of AI-fueled GDP growth. And so are regulators appointed by (or replaced by) those politicians.
- None of them need to view it as a cash grab. VCs and Wall Street are funding tech innovation, which has a proven history of helping humanity. Politicians are ensuring that we "win the race" with China, so that we maintain sovereignty. Regulators don't want to stand in the way of a cure for pediatric cancer.
- Most AI industry bigs— including Sam, Dario and Demis — have expressed at least some (p)doom concerns. Much like early subprime lending leaders warned against lowering standards (before they did). So far,, the money seems to still be talking louder, including in their own heads.
The bottom line is that we all should try to approach these issues from first principles. Not from sunk costs or current cash. And then let the chips quite literally fall where they may.
