Perplexing labor market views

Americans are as pessimistic about the overall job market as they have been since the depths of the pandemic. But they think they, personally, will be just fine.

The big picture: That it the perplexing combination of views displayed in the New York Fed's latest Survey of Consumer Expectations, which matches other survey-based evidence that Americans are doing well individually but are deeply negative about the overall economic outlook.

By the numbers: Survey respondents put average odds that the unemployment rate will be higher a year from now at 44.4% in August, the highest since April 2020 and up 1.6 percentage point from July.

• Yet survey respondents' average perceived odds of losing their own job in the next 12 months decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 13.8%, the lowest since February.
• Perceived odds of voluntarily quitting their job voluntarily increased as well, by 0.9 percentage points — a sign of confidence in respondents' personal job prospects.

State of play: Labor market data has firmed up so far this year, with the unemployment at 4.1% the last two months after ending last year at 4.4%. That firming is reflected in peoples' perceptions of their personal job prospects, but not in their macro views.

Zoom in: This curious mix of views aligns with other public opinion data.

• The Conference Board's consumer confidence index, for example, showed a July surge in the "present situation index" of current conditions, which was up 6.8 points to 121.2
• Meanwhile the expectations index — consumers' outlook for income, business, and the job market — fell 5.8 points to 68.2.

Between the lines: Survey responses about economic questions increasingly seem to bring sour responses that reflect broadly negative attitudes about the direction of the world.

• When you narrow the question to ask about peoples' immediate economic circumstances, the responses get a lot more favorable.