Axios C-Suite: The 4 ways that AI could play out
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Every CEO needs to be super-fluent in AI advancements and planning for wild scenarios — ranging from true superintelligence in 2027 to a political movement to shut it down.
Why it matters: This isn't something we can outsource, slow-walk or ignore. The technology and politics are shifting so fast we need to scramble to understand — and ideally routinely use — it.
- In just the past seven days, OpenAI released Astra, a new model it claims nears AGI (broad human-level intelligence), while detailing how its own agents went rogue, teamed up, infiltrated a competitor and covered their tracks.
Consider this brief your frame for thinking through the four most plausible emerging scenarios:
1. The techno-optimists are right. So far, AI capabilities have advanced faster than almost anyone predicted. Yes, the tech is imperfect — but it would be foolish not to assume it keeps getting meaningfully better with each passing month. This is my dominant assumption.
- At this pace, we should assume it's not just doing any automatable task better than humans but also starting to reason, think and operate on its own better than us. This would demand even quicker staff restructuring and a fundamental rethinking of org charts, business strategy and operating style.
2. An AI catastrophe hits. I work under the assumption that something big and bad will hit in the next 18 months, most likely a widespread cyber attack or bio-engineered virus set loose by a bad actor.
- This will instantly reset politics and AI advancement. We should assume a swift and severe internal and external backlash. We'll need to calm staff and defend our use of AI. (This is why you should talk early and often about how your org uses AI, guards for safety, and anticipates possible bad outcomes). If politicians, voters and consumers turn against AI, we need to be ready to defend our approach with staff and customers.
3. Shut-it-down politics explode. If something bad happens — or even if data centers keep rising in unpopularity, or job losses start to mount — Democrats seem ready to turn hard against AI. Bernie Sanders, the dominant voice of the left, has already called for a pause. He introduced legislation that would imprison anyone building superintelligence. In doing so, Sanders was joined by Rep. Greg Casar (D-Texas), the head of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, which includes 95 of 214 House Dems.
- This is the driest of kindling — and any small spark sets it ablaze. If one of the parties goes full anti-AI, this will seep deep into our own internal politics, like other hot, emotional topics, such as Israel or the post-George Floyd protests. This is why the only solution is preventative: explain often and transparently how you're thinking about and using AI. Silence is deadly.
4. The messy middle persists. This is a very plausible — and some think most likely — outcome. AI keeps advancing, but not so fast or transformationally as the optimists think. Our employees use it more and more, but it simply takes longer to connect to existing data, systems and security layers to truly upend work and life as we know it.
- This is the easiest one to manage because it's essentially our new status quo. But even here, I worry too many CEOs are not doing enough to manage AI enablement in every division with proper governance — or enough to walk their staff calmly through what is a very substantial shift.
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