A different way to view the Fed
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When Mike Allen and I are curious about the "real economy," we talk to sources at big-box stores for a read on real-time sales trends, or friends at super-regional banks to gauge the mood and money movement.
- To us, that's the real world and real data, imperfect but less imperfect than dated Bureau of Labor Statistics surveys built for a different time and economy.
Why it matters: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will get scrutinized like hell for rate changes, his communication style, his vow of a "new chapter" at the Fed, and his relationship with President Trump.
- We think the most interesting thing to watch long-term is the seemingly boring data task force he appointed last month to improve the "quality and timeliness of real economic signals that inform the Federal Reserve's policy judgments."
- The members: Harvard economics professor Raj Chetty, former Walmart CEO Doug McMillon and University of Chicago economics professor emeritus Kevin Murphy.
The big picture: AI should surely help aggregate and better analyze more real-time data feeds to help policymakers make better decisions. If not, AI will be a total flop.
- Imagine a parallel Fed that uses more fine-tuned, real-time data feeds, analyzed without economic worldview bias or personal interest of Fed governors.
The bottom line: We've known Warsh for years, and his interest in AI and rethinking data is real and intense. We'd be surprised if the ultimate manifestation of his "new chapter" isn't deeply infused with the work of McMillon & Co.
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