6 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Your congressional cheat sheet ahead of the midterms

Jim VandeHei

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Illustration of the Senate seal on a piece of lined paper below a standardized test — Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Stock: Getty Images

Axios CEO Jim VandeHei asked two of the smartest political handicappers to help us think about 2026 midterm outcomes:

Josh Kraushaar, editor-in-chief of Jewish Insider and former Axios campaign expert, and David Wasserman of The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter.

Senate

Where it stands: 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats, 2 independents caucusing with Dems (making 47 total).

Democrats need: 4 flips to get to 51. Fifty isn't enough — the tiebreak is Republican.

The call:

Kraushaar: Dem +2
Wasserman: Dem +3

Why it matters: This mirrors what I hear from top Ds and Rs alike. Democrats will get close, but likely fall short of a majority.

The big reason: They need to flip too many seats in too many GOP-friendly states like Alaska, Maine, Ohio and Texas.

House of Representatives

Where it stands: 218 Republicans, 212 Democrats, 1 independent, 4 vacancies.

Democrats need: A net gain of 3 to reach 218, the majority.

The call:

Kraushaar: Dem +15-20
Wasserman: Dem +15

Why it matters: Republicans enjoy (and muscled through) a favorable map with way more Ds running in Trump-won districts than Rs in Harris-won districts. They then jammed through late redistricting changes that should hand them six to nine seats.

Yet most top Republicans tell me there's an 80%+ chance they're toast regardless.

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Your congressional cheat sheet ahead of the midterms

Senate

House of Representatives

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