Team Trump fears a Nancy Mace governorship

President Trump's allies are growing alarmed that GOP Rep. Nancy Mace — who infuriated him by calling for the release of the Epstein files — will defy expectations and win the South Carolina governor's race.

Why it matters: Mace, who's running in a fiercely competitive June 9 primary, has been a thorn in Trump's side, most recently with her criticism of the administration's handling of the Iran war. She also threatened to side with Democrats on a war powers resolution.

• People close to the president don't want Mace as governor — a perch that could help sway the 2028 presidential primary given the state's early spot on the voting calendar.

State of play: Polls consistently show Mace near or at the top of the Republican primary field. If no one receives a majority of the vote in the June 9 primary, the nomination will be determined in a two-week runoff pitting the top two finishers.

• A recent survey conducted by the GOP firm co/efficient had Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette leading with 19 percent, followed by Mace with 18, Attorney General Alan Wilson at 15 and Rep. Ralph Norman at 13.
• One possibility alarming the president's allies: That Mace and Rep. Ralph Norman advance to a runoff. Norman crossed Trump during the 2024 primary when he endorsed former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley and called for "new leadership" in the party.
• But Trump has yet to endorse a rival of Mace or Norman — recognizing he needs their votes to pass legislation in the House.

What they're saying: "Nancy Mace and Ralph Norman sabotaged Trump when it mattered most. Their reward shouldn't be the governor's mansion," a source close to the White House tells Axios.

The intrigue: South Carolina Republicans are watching closely to see if Trump endorses. His support could swing the race.

• Evette is the candidate best positioned to get Trump's nod, operatives say. She raised more than $1 million for Trump's 2024 bid, and several members of the president's political team are advising her campaign.
• Evette is endorsed by Gov. Henry McMaster, a Trump ally who's lobbied the president to back her.

But Trump is treading carefully. Aside from alienating Mace and Norman — whose votes the razor-thin House GOP majority needs to pass legislation — endorsing Evette could antagonize South Carolina Rep. Joe Wilson, the father of Alan Wilson.

Yes, but: Some South Carolina GOP strategists are skeptical Mace and Norman will both advance to the runoff.

Behind the scenes: Mace has bewildered White House aides by repeatedly asking for Trump's endorsement despite her stands on the Epstein files and the Iran war.

• They note she's received nearly $500,000 in support from a super PAC aligned with Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), a frequent Trump critic.
• They also point out that she co-signed a discharge petition with Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie — a vocal Trump critic whom the president is working to unseat — aimed at forcing the release of the Epstein files.
• Mace rejected Trump's overtures to remove her name from the petition.

"Nancy has asked for an endorsement countless times, which is confusing considering she teamed up with Massie to launch a dishonest attack on the administration in regards to the Epstein case," says a Trump political operative.

The other side: "The only people worried about Nancy Mace becoming governor are the consultants planting this story because they know the Trump endorsement isn't coming for their candidate," a senior Mace adviser tells Axios.

• While Mace has criticized Trump's handling of the Iran war, at other times she's praised him.
• Norman's campaign did not respond to a request for comment.

The bottom line: Trump wants an ally in the South Carolina governorship, especially given the stakes of the 2028 primary. But deciding how or whether to weigh in isn't an easy calculation.