Musk vs. Altman is about what we don't already know
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Photo illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Photos: Jim Lo Scalzo/Bloomberg and Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images
Elon Musk's lawsuit against Sam Altman ostensibly is about OpenAI's pivot to a for-profit model, after having been founded for more altruistic purposes.
What really matters, however, is if either side can expose damaging information about the other. Almost regardless of the jury verdict.
The big picture: Altman has more at stake than does Musk.
- The WSJ on Monday night reported that OpenAI "missed its own targets for new users and revenue."
- This comes just weeks after WSJ noted that some OpenAI shareholders "have begun to privately question whether [Altman] should lead OpenAI through the turbulence of going public."
- Musk also is prepping a massive IPO for SpaceX, which now includes xAI, but Wall Street already knows many of his warts and appears to have accepted them. Even the casual racism.
State of play: A nine-person jury was seated Monday in Oakland, with opening arguments to begin later today.
- The liability phase (i.e., did Altman and OpenAI do anything wrong) is expected to last for the next three weeks, with the jury to then provide what amounts to an advisory opinion.
- The remedies phase, with only the presiding judge involved, could follow.
Zoom in: We've already learned some fun gossip via discovery, but nothing that would change the trajectory of either principal or their company.
- The real fireworks and burning embers, if any, would come during testimony from witnesses that almost certainly will include both Altman and Musk. Plus many others who have long personal and professional relationships with both men.
- We just don't know what we don't yet know.
The bottom line: Tech investors regularly say that they back people, not projects. Individuals, not ideas.
- That means the unprecedented quantums of capital are being bet as much on Altman and Musk as they are on OpenAI and SpaceX — even if neither man is an actual AI engineer.
- What happens over the next few weeks, therefore, could make or break fortunes.
