Airline industry faces a shake-up as jet fuel hits hard
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The competitive landscape for U.S. airlines is confronting seismic turbulence as energy price spikes wreak havoc on the industry.
Why it matters: Rising fuel and labor costs are squeezing airlines — and pushing higher fares and fees onto travelers already facing economic uncertainty.
The big picture: Airlines are entering a shakeout — with consolidation talk rising, the financial divide widening between the haves and have nots, and profit decisions impacting fees and service.
State of play: United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby has reportedly pitched a controversial mega-merger with American Airlines.
- Spirit Airlines may be on the verge of liquidation, according to multiple reports, after filing for its second bankruptcy in less than a year in November.
- Southwest recently cut routes, and other airlines are trimming less-profitable service, too.
- Delta Air Lines CEO Ed Bastian reportedly said Tuesday that the carrier must "find ways" to pass along the extra costs of jet fuel to consumers.
By the numbers: Delta, American, Southwest and United are the biggest players — and when they sneeze, the industry gets a cold.
- They collectively had 68.9% market share of domestic revenue passenger miles in the 12-month period ending in January, according to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics.
- And they've been widening their financial edge on the competition in recent years as they maximize their premium cabins and leverage their scale to mitigate cost increases.
The throughline affecting all of the companies — from the healthiest carriers to the struggling ones — is the spike in jet fuel prices since the Iran war began.
- A deal to keep the Strait of Hormuz open has eased oil price fears in recent days.
- But if fuel prices remain elevated, the industry could shift "from growth to survival mode," Brandon Parsons, economist at Pepperdine Graziadio Business School, tells Axios in an email.
Zoom in: For Spirit Airlines, that existential moment may have already arrived.
- "Spirit basically built this model on being the lowest-cost option, and that only works when the cost gap is wide," aviation executive and Georgetown University business professor Shye Gilad tells Axios. "And right now it's narrowing fast."
- A Spirit rep declined to comment.
What they're saying: A potential Spirit liquidation and a United-American deal could be "devastating" for consumers, says Rohit Chopra, former FTC commissioner and former director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.
- "We're already seeing the huge harm that airline consolidation has had on businesses and people just trying to go to a wedding or take a vacation," Chopra tells Axios in an interview.
The other side: Airlines for America, an industry trade group, pointed to a Deutsche Bank report projecting U.S. airline fuel costs will rise about $24 billion compared with its pre-war forecast.
- Even with $14 billion in additional revenue from pricing actions — the industry would still see an $8 billion gap.
Reality check: Kirby's proposed United-American merger has drawn swift opposition from consumer watchdogs, but the company's real goal might be something smaller, like a deal to acquire JetBlue, multiple analysts suggested to Axios.
- "Even if it doesn't happen, the fact that it's being discussed tells you that airlines believe scale is probably more important than it has been before," Gilad says. "When you see pricing pressure, more and more you need to scale."
- United declined to comment on Kirby's plan, and JetBlue did not respond to a request for comment.
The bottom line: Soaring fuel costs are accelerating an airline shakeout — with fewer choices and higher prices likely for travelers.
