Bears encroach on bullish dealmaking market
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Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios
Here's the good news for dealmakers: 2026 so far has gone gangbusters, in line with consensus optimism.
Here's the bad news for dealmakers: There are more warning signs than there were drunk teenagers at the St. Patrick's Day parade in Boston.
By the numbers: Global dealmaking volume is up 41% year-over-year, according to LSEG.
- U.S. deals are even better, climbing 80%. Private equity-backed deals are up a whopping 174% (global) and 264% (U.S.).
- The increases have been driven by mega-deals, with consolidation begetting more consolidation.
Yes, but: There's some slowdown within those boffo numbers.
- March year-to-date for U.S. deal volume is down 19%, while the number of U.S. deals is off 61%
The big picture: Uncertainty has returned with a vengeance. It's not necessarily stopping deals, but it's certainly slowing them.
- Pick your poison: The Iran war, which is heating up inflation and cooling off Middle East money flows. Private credit concerns, which at some point could become a crunch. The Fed not yet cutting rates, as had been expected coming into the year. Ongoing concerns about an AI valuation bubble, even though public equity indexes are in the red for 2026.
Zoom in: The IPO market, which has ground to a virtual halt, may be the canary in the coalmine for broader dealmaking.
The bottom line: This is the second straight spring that animal spirits have been dashed by the White House — last year was "Liberation Day" tariffs, this year Iran. And it may prove to just be a momentum blip, rather than a momentum killer.
- What we know for sure, however, is that dealmaker confidence is now shaded by concern.
