CEO sentiment surges, but executives are split on hiring amid AI boom
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CEO optimism jumped this quarter — but America's top executives are split over how aggressively to hire, according to a new survey by the Business Roundtable, first seen by Axios.
Why it matters: The sentiment rebound is driven by a surge in plans to increase capital spending, as companies pile into an AI investment boom that has become a critical growth engine.
- It fits with broader evidence that the economy may have firmed up a bit at the start of 2026.
- The central question for the economy in the months ahead is whether that spending translates into demand for more workers, especially as CEOs navigate a new war and an unresolved trade policy.
What they're saying: "This quarter's survey shows a notable improvement in CEO sentiment," Business Roundtable CEO Joshua Bolten said in a release.
- "The rise in the headline index is encouraging, especially the solid gains in sales and capex, but the employment picture remains a concern, with as many CEOs planning to reduce employment as increase it," Bolten added.
Between the lines: Notably, the group — comprising CEOs of America's biggest companies — surveyed about 170 members between Feb. 23 and March 6, a period that covers the first seven days of the Iran war.
- It also captures the days after the Supreme Court's landmark decision to overturn a suite of President Trump's tariffs, which the administration has vowed to reinstate through other authorities.
By the numbers: The Business Roundtable's measure of CEO confidence rose 9 points, to 89, above the index's historical average of 83 for the first time since early 2025.
- The index has steadily rebounded since sinking to a five-year low in the second quarter of 2025 in the aftermath of "Liberation Day" and the administration's whipsawing trade policy.
Yes, but: The 32% of respondents who envisioned increasing payroll in the coming months were matched by the same share who envisioned cutting.
Zoom in: The sentiment index's bounce back is mainly due to rosier plans for capital expenditures — investment in new buildings, equipment, technology and more — in the next six months.
- That was the case this quarter. A sub-index for capex soared 12 points, bringing the index to the highest level in four years. Sales expectations rose 6 points.
"The survey shows stronger CEO expectations for sales and capital, despite global uncertainty," Cisco Systems CEO Chuck Robbins, the chair of the Business Roundtable, said in a statement.
- Robbins says the results show the impact of the administration's tax and spending bill, deregulation and "the resilience of the U.S. economy."
The intrigue: Hiring plans improved 9 points, bringing the sub-index to a neutral threshold between employment growth and contraction.
- About 36% of CEOs anticipate no change in employment levels.
What to watch: The survey points to a key tension watched by economic policymakers: a potential "jobless boom," in which soaring AI-related investment helps top-line economic growth while the labor market limps along.
The bottom line: CEO sentiment spiked higher in the early days of the Iran war, with top executives firming up hiring, sales and spending plans.
- The big question is whether that cheerier mood holds.
