BlackRock's Rieder takes the lead in race for Trump's Fed chair pick

Traders on major betting exchanges now assign top odds to BlackRock executive Rick Rieder to be President Trump's Fed chair nominee.

Driving the news: Rieder had 47% odds Monday morning on Polymarket, with former Fed governor Kevin Warsh second at 28%. Rieder's odds were below 3% on Jan. 12.

• The markets have been volatile through the last several weeks, reflecting shifting comments from the president about the nomination. White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett reached 85% odds in December and is now down to 9%, for example.
• The betting exchanges may be volatile, but they reflect real money being put at risk — $269 million on Polymarket and another $59 million on Kalshi.

Zoom in: Rieder, as the chief investment officer for global fixed income at BlackRock, is in an unusual position for a potential Fed chair, having published research notes on economic data, which offer insights into his thinking on major debates of the moment.

• In a note on jobs data released Jan. 9, for example, Rieder was clear that he believes a productivity surge is underway that is dampening demand for labor, and that the job market is weaker than headline data imply.

What they're saying: Rieder wrote that "if people question whether productivity is occurring in today's economy, we would point to a number of illustrations that require closer inspection than just the top-line payroll growth number, which has been slowing of late."

• He adds that "while U.S. growth is solid, broad-based labor is not really participating in this economic vitality," and that this justifies further rate cuts.

⚾️ Fun fact: Rieder is also a minority investor in Major League Baseball's Baltimore Orioles, of which he is said to be a lifelong fan.