The peak stress times for power during the winter storm
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High voltage power lines in a substation along the electrical power grid in Miami. Photo: Joe Raedle/Getty Images
Two of the biggest U.S. grid operators in the path of the upcoming winter storm face critical windows early next week that will determine whether they can meet electricity demand, consulting firm ICF said Friday.
Why it matters: Electric utilities are bracing for heavy demand — with some warning of potential for extended power outages — during the storm.
- On Thursday, Energy Secretary Chris Wright took the unusual step of asking grid operators to be ready to make backup generation available at data centers and other facilities in case of outages.
- Data-center operators and businesses typically don't distribute to the grid.
Driving the news: The "most critical window" for Texas' main grid operator, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), will be between 5 a.m. and 8 a.m. on Monday, ICF energy researchers said.
- Power price spikes could potentially jump to $5,000 per megawatt-hour.
- The alignment of variables like demand, wind output, power failures caused by extreme temperatures, and gas availability during peak hours will determine whether the market holds up, ICF said.
The most critical window for PJM, the grid operator for 13 states and the District of Columbia, will be on Tuesday.
- Peak demand — the time when the most electricity is used in a given period — is projected to soar that day.
- The grid will need to run hard continuously at capacity — the maximum output that a generator can produce — during that time, ICF said.
Yes, but: ERCOT said earlier this week it expects to have enough supply to get through the storm.
- It has seen substantial growth in solar and battery storage capacity and has fortified its grid since Winter Storm Uri, which left millions without power in Texas in 2021 and was responsible for at least 200 freezing deaths.
- PJM predicted in November that it would have enough resources to serve the 67 million people in its footprint this winter under expected conditions.
- It said, however, that high levels of generator outages such as those that occurred during 2022's Winter Storm Elliott "could leave the system vulnerable to power outages."
What they're saying: "The public power community is working closely with our government and industry partners to prepare for this historic storm," Scott Corwin, president and CEO of the American Public Power Association, said in a Friday statement.
- Jim Matheson, CEO of the National Rural Electric Cooperative Association, said rural cooperatives "are well-versed in safely responding to Mother Nature's worst and have been preparing for this winter storm for days."
