Panama Canal ports deal remains unsettled
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It's been nearly a year since BlackRock agreed to buy ports on either side of the Panama Canal from Hong Kong's CK Hutchison — a deal that President Trump touted during an address to Congress last March.
- But what if the ports aren't Hutchison's to sell?
State of play: Panama's Supreme Court is expected to rule soon on whether Hutchison breached its concession contracts, including one renewed in 2021, thus allegedly harming taxpayers and violating the country's constitution.
- If Hutchison is found liable, its license is likely to be terminated. The same license that BlackRock essentially agreed to buy. At that point, Panama might be able to launch a new auction process.
The big picture: Were BlackRock booted, it's possible that Trump would reinsert himself into the situation.
- Trump said shortly before returning to office that he would "demand that the Panama Canal be returned to us, in full, and without question," unless Panama agreed to lower fees for U.S. ships.
- Panama didn't officially cut the costs, but Trump seemed to move on after the BlackRock agreement. He very well could refocus on the matter, particularly given his new inclination toward expansionism.
Zoom in: It's also unclear what a negative ruling from Panama's Supreme Court could mean for BlackRock's broader $22.8 billion deal with CK Hutchison, which includes the acquisition of more than 40 other ports in 23 countries.
- My understanding at the time was that the two agreements were legally separate, which could allow one could to move forward without the other — reflecting an understanding of the Panama Canal's geopolitical complexity.
- But there's been no recent statement or meaningful update, and BlackRock declined comment.
Behind the scenes: There also are questions about who exactly is on the buyside at this point.
- CK Hutchison said in July that it was in talks to add a "major strategic" Chinese investor to the deal, in order to gain Beijing's blessing.
- That investor was state-owned shipper Cosco, and there have been subsequent reports that Cosco might actually get a larger share of the Panama ports than would BlackRock — something else that might get Trump's goat.
The bottom line: Panama's ports situation seems more unsettled today than it did a year ago.
