Here's what kind of energy is fueling AI
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Natural gas is filling the biggest role fueling electricity for data centers in the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest — the country's AI hotbed — but the region is still staring down a huge shortfall in power.
Why it matters: Society faces the risk of spiking power prices or — worse — no power at all if this gap isn't resolved by either adding more power or fewer data centers.
How it works: The chart above illustrates what's known as the effective load carrying capability, or ELCC.
- This is a method that grid operators use to measure how much an energy resource — like renewables or natural gas — can reliably contribute to meeting power demand at times when the grid is most at risk of shortages.
- As wind and solar grow on the grid, ELCC provides a more precise way to assess how much dependable capacity they actually add, accounting for their variability.
- That's unlike traditional resources such as natural gas, which can generally be dispatched on demand, according to a spokesperson for BloombergNEF.
Context: Measured by nameplate capacity — the maximum power a plant is rated to produce under ideal conditions — planned supply additions of variable wind and solar appear far larger.
- But much of that capacity doesn't reliably show up during peak demand. ELCC adjusts for that reality.
- It's the difference between food on grocery store shelves and food on your plate when you're hungry. When demand peaks, the grid needs electricity that can actually be delivered — not just capacity that exists in theory. Timing matters.
Zoom in: The chart is focused on the PJM grid system, which provides power to 67 million people in 13 states. It shows two big things:
- Natural gas currently does the most to narrow the projected power gap, compared with wind, solar and other resources.
- A sizable shortfall remains through the end of the decade.
That picture could change to the degree long-duration energy storage — capable of storing large amounts of electricity for days or longer at affordable cost — scales.
- Google is pursuing this with startup Energy Dome in Europe, for example.
Yes, but: We're talking about electricity connected to a grid system, which may miss other trends:
- On-site diesel generators are growing in use, including for data centers.
- Wild ideas are becoming reality, like floating data centers and aircraft engines and naval ships being repurposed into power plants, per Axios' Ben Geman.
- Peaker plants — typically dirtier fossil fuel plants meant to run only for short periods of time — are running for longer, Reuters found in an investigation.
What we're watching: What other wild ideas bubble to the surface in this race for power.
