Wall Street gets hit with Trump's economic policy fire hose
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Photo illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios. Photos: Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images and Roberto Schmidt/AFP via Getty Images.
Threats to Fed independence, a $200 billion mortgage bond purchase, a possible cap on credit-card interest rates and more didn't stop stocks from hitting records.
Why it matters: The fire hose of policy from Washington hasn't shaken investors, yet, who are happy to keep their eyes on the AI prize.
What they're saying: "My sense is that the bar for selling risk is set quite high," Ed Al-Hussainy, portfolio manager at Columbia Threadneedle, tells Axios.
- While the Trump administration is ratcheting up policy announcements that could impact markets and the economy, investors are still struggling to look away from the AI trade.
- At this point, any market selloff would have to be around "the questioning of the profitability around AI," Trevor Slaven, global head of asset allocation and multi-asset portfolio solutions at Barings, tells Axios.
Between the lines: Investors' heads are swiveling, and while they don't quite know where to look, they're certain they can't afford to sell as the Big Tech rally rages on.
- Indeed, gains in the equity market are broadening beyond Big Tech, making it an even healthier bull market than before.
- Still, the bond market's response to the investigation of Fed chair Jerome Powell could change that.
What we're watching: "It's time for the bond vigilantes to engage with the president," Henrietta Treyz, co-founder of Veda Partners, said via text.
- Bond vigilantes are the Batman of the markets: They swoop in to sell bonds to protest fiscal or Fed policies they deem misguided.
- The Fed has control over short-term rates. But bond investors have more sway further out, in particular, the yield on the 10-year Treasury. That's what the administration is focused on, because the 10-year is tied to all kinds of consumer loans, like mortgages and auto loans.
- If the bond batmen sell their bonds, prices drop, pushing up yields, and leaving rates higher —the opposite of what the administration wants.
Threat level: "Higher bond yields are likely to cause pain to your growth portfolios, due to the interest-rate sensitivity of growth stocks," Mark Malek of Siebert Financial wrote in a note to clients.
- If the bond vigilantes rebel against threats to Fed independence or even the administration's push to lower yields through mortgage bond purchases, rates could rise, weighing on tech stocks that rely on cheap money (especially to fund their data centers).
State of play: So far, certain assets have moved in reaction to Trump administration moves.
- Gold prices rose sharply yesterday in a rush to safe havens following the Powell investigation.
- "You're seeing the bond vigilantism in gold," Slaven of Barings says.
- Bank stocks slid Monday after Trump proposed a credit-card interest rate cap.
- Treasury yields have had some sharp swings of late, falling about 20 basis points after the mortgage bond plan was announced Thursday, and then rising some 16 basis points Monday in the wake of the Powell investigation.
Yet, but: Did I mention that the S&P 500 and the Dow had record closes Monday?
The bottom line: The market to watch when it comes to a response to policy from Washington will be the bond market.
