Jan 7, 2026 - Business
How America is getting ahead of itself on Venezuela
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Illustration: Lindsey Bailey/Axios
Pundits and politicians are getting ahead of themselves in crowing about how U.S. companies, particularly in the energy sector, could profit from this past weekend's events in Venezuela.
The big picture: No one knows how this will play out, nor even if the Trump administration has a solid strategy beyond the grab-and-go on Nicolás Maduro.
- Maduro's Chavismo government remains in place, as do its ties to China, and is cracking down on dissent.
- It either would need to be replaced or have a major change of heart before American companies begin striking deals.
- The U.S. hasn't endorsed the opposition leader nor set a timetable for new elections. There are no American boots on the ground to force the issue, and doing so would belie the "law enforcement action" rhetoric that has kept Congress on the sidelines.
- President Trump on Tuesday night announced that the U.S. will receive up to 50 million barrels of sanctioned oil from Venezuela and that he would control how the proceeds are split. Venezuela's government hasn't yet publicly commented.
Zoom in: Venezuela has a glut of natural resources whose extraction infrastructure has grown "rusty," as Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick recently said.
- Not just oil, but also minerals that are critical to the booming AI and defense industries.
- U.S. companies certainly would have interest in supplying the WD-40, particularly if bolstered by government incentives, but not necessarily under current conditions. It's uncertainty on steroids.
The bottom line: Subtracting Maduro doesn't automatically add American-style capitalism to Venezuela, let alone American capitalists.
