How Venezuela could benefit American companies
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Investors never let a crisis go to waste, one chief investment officer wrote following the seizure of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
Why it matters: Wall Street has already drafted a list of winners and losers, diving into energy stocks and oil before the companies themselves have said whether they are interested. That could lead to disappointment.
What they're saying: "People piling into some of these names on the energy side, I don't want to say regret, but I'm not sure it's going to continue to be a great way to think about things," Jay Pelosky, founder of TPW Advisory, tells Axios.
- "I'm very skeptical as to the idea that this is going to lead to a big surge of U.S. oil," he adds.
- Oil prices rallied 1% Monday, even though any revitalization effort from U.S. oil companies in Venezuela would be expensive and could take years.
Follow the money: Who are the potential winners?
- Oil service firms: Halliburton, for instance, was up almost 8% yesterday.
- Refiners: Marathon Petroleum and Valero Energy, which rose nearly 6% and 9% respectively, could benefit from access to Venezuelan crude oil.
- Chevron: The only U.S. oil company maintaining operations in Venezuela is "arguably best positioned to scale up production if conditions warrant," Morgan Stanley notes to clients. Chevron shares rose 7.8%.
- EM investors: Emerging market stocks and bonds had hugely successful runs in 2025, with the iShares Latin America 40 ETF up over 48%. While it critically does not include Venezuela exposure, the ETF is a proxy measure for growth in the region, which some investors anticipate as a result of U.S. involvement.
- AI companies: Venezuela sits atop critical minerals used in semiconductors that power AI data centers. If the U.S. can tap Venezuela for these materials instead of relying on China, it could have a leg up in the AI race. (But this is a very big if. More on that below.)
- Precious metals: Venezuela has gold and silver as well.
- Defense stocks: The sector could rally amid heightened U.S. military involvement, according to Morgan Stanley.
The other side: Who are the potential losers?
- Oil investors: Experts flag that most Venezuelan oil isn't profitable at current prices (around $60 a barrel), tossing cold water on hopes for a resurgence in supply, especially given the upfront investment required.
- Congress: Investors can "expect a smaller role for Congress in market-relevant policy developments, translating to elevated levels of political uncertainty and higher risk premia across the board," Morgan Stanley notes.
- U.S. dollar: The longer-term impact could be dollar-negative, as this is the latest example of the U.S. "doing whatever it wants," Pelosky says. Global central banks may respond by continuing to de-dollarize their holdings.
- Trade optimists: Anyone who thought the trade war was over, as action in Venezuela will likely ratchet up tensions between the U.S. and China.
The bottom line: President Trump's focus on regional dominance will continue to heighten both risks and opportunities for investors.
