Prognosticating in 1999: Revisiting turn-of-the-millennium predictions
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U.S. adults surveyed in 1999 correctly predicted major shifts for the half-century ahead: the election of a Black U.S. president, civilian travel to space and a warming planet.
The big picture: The turn of the millennium marked a cultural, technological and political inflection point, with Americans anticipating some of the changes that have come to define the 21st century so far.
- Pew Research surveyed U.S. adults in 1999 who were largely optimistic about their lives over the next half century. Respondents were also positive about the outlook of the country though they expected political, environmental and health perils.
- Many predictions from tech experts and futurists on personal technology and its pervasive role have been realized.
Here are other major predictions one the cusp of the new millennium:
Technology
Businessman and philanthropist Bill Gates in 1999 made prescient tech predictions on mobile devices, online payments, online home monitoring, communication, television, advertising and more.
- Business insider checked in on 15 of them a decade later.
- Gates predicted: "People will carry around small devices that allow them to constantly stay in touch and do electronic business from wherever they are. They will be able to check the news, see flights they have booked, get information from financial markets, and do just about anything else on these devices."
- Foreshadowing social media, he said: "Private websites for your friends and family will be common, allowing you to chat and plan for events."
- On advertising, he accurately said: "Devices will have smart advertising. They will know your purchasing trends, and will display advertisements that are tailored toward your preferences."
The intrigue: 55% of Pew respondents in 1999 said they were comfortable with growing reliance on technology because of its conveniences.
- However, 39% said reliance on tech is bad and worried that people would become dependent on it.
Politics
Three out of four prescient Pew respondents predicted the U.S. would elect an African American president by 2050. Former President Obama won the White House in 2008 and 2012.
- 80% predicted a woman president in that same time frame.
- Democrats have nominated two woman candidates: former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in 2016 and former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024. Both lost to Trump.
Dictators and democracy: 41% of people predicted more countries would be ruled by dictators by 2050.
- Yet 79% said they thought democracy would continue to spread.
- The Economist Intelligence Unit's democracy index published in February found an increase in eight countries under authoritarian regimes from 2014 to 2024.
- The overall global democracy index fell to a historic low.
Terrorist attack: 64% of Pew respondents in 1999 predicted a terrorist attack on the U.S. within 50 years.
- Two years later, roughly 3,000 people died in the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks.
Health
81% of Pew respondents thought there would be a cure for cancer by 2025.
- Researchers have made significant breakthroughs in cancer treatments, including via nanoparticles and mRNA most recently.
- "Though there's not a cure, there has been a lot of progress," per WebMD. "It may not feel fast enough when you have cancer. But there are more treatment options now than there were even 5 years ago."
AIDS: 79% of Pew respondents predicted a cure for AIDS.
- A handful of people have been cured of HIV. A German man in 2024 underwent a stem cell transplant in a first-of-its-kind case. Two years prior, a woman was cured via a transplant method using umbilical cord blood.
- Medications that prevent HIV — pre-exposure prophylaxis, often called PrEP — is more than 90% effective in preventing the transmission of HIV.
Earth and climate
An overwhelming majority (78%) of Pew respondents predicted the environment would improve by 2050, while a slightly smaller share (76%) said they thought the the Earth will get warmer.
- The 10 warmest years in the historical record have all occurred in the past decade (2015 to 2024), per Climate.gov.
- Global efforts to address climate change are stronger today than they were a decade ago, even with President Trump's administration rolling back climate pledges.
Space: 57% of Pew respondents said ordinary people would be in space by 2050.
- This one didn't quite pan out, but Jeff Bezos' Blue Origin has launched about a dozen human spaceflight missions, largely for celebrities and billionaires.
Go deeper: Gold and tech could win in 2026, Goldman survey finds
