Why OpenAI will be the AI stock kingmaker in 2026
Add Axios as your preferred source to
see more of our stories on Google.
Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios
How do you pick the winners among the AI tech stocks? One school of thought is that you want companies with strong ties to OpenAI.
The big picture: For investors, this is a risk/reward scenario with little in the way of precedent. If OpenAI succeeds with its AI ambitions, riches could rain down upon its tech company partners.
- That is a big if, however, because right now OpenAI is a cash-burning startup that does not generate any profits yet.
Driving the news: OpenAI has spending commitments worth $1.4 trillion over the next eight years. Companies in line to receive that windfall would win big.
- OpenAI has reportedly signed cloud service agreements worth up to $300 billion with Oracle. Other cloud players, ranging from Google to Amazon, are also set to be paid by OpenAI for AI infrastructure services.
- OpenAI pays Nvidia, Broadcom and AMD for AI chips, and it has a deal with CoreWeave for its cloud-based GPUs. That usage is set to expand as long as demand for ChatGPT grows.
- Other AI winners mentioned in calls with our sources include Databricks, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Datadog, Palantir and MongoDB.
What they're saying: The trade that is on, at least in the first quarter of 2026, is, "What is your tie to OpenAI?" Jeffrey Favuzza, tech strategist for Jefferies, tells Axios.
State of play: The infrastructure that powers AI (think chips, cloud, data centers) are the winners. The losers are in the application layer right now, Favuzza says.
- Adobe, Workday and Salesforce are examples of application layer names. These are companies working to show how they are using AI, but are not providing the groundwork for its expansion.
- Anti-AI rallies can happen when those application and software players catch a bid. So far, however, such gains have not stuck, indicating there is room to run in the broader AI rally, Favuzza adds.
Threat level: If OpenAI runs into trouble, the entire AI trade would wobble.
- When asked about how concerned he is about OpenAI potentially failing, Vivek Arya, senior analyst at Bank of America, tells Axios he is unsure.
- But he remains bullish, regardless of current valuation levels, which he feels are underpricing the upside to AI stocks.
- CoreWeave and Oracle are being monitored as potential losers given the amount of revenue they expect from OpenAI.
- Favuzza is watching Amazon to see if it can pull off its chip ambitions.
What to watch: Monetization for OpenAI, which is projected to come in the form of advertising in early 2026. That will determine whether or not it can get the revenue needed to pay off its nearly $1.5 trillion in commitments.
- If not, then the forward earnings projections for the stocks powering the market right now could be pressured, and so would the entire market.
The bottom line: The AI rally hinges on whether OpenAI can turn massive spending into real money. If not, these winners will no longer look so safe.
