Black employment milestone evaporates
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Labor market conditions for Black Americans are worsening more rapidly than they are for the overall population.
- It's a reversal from just a short time ago, when strong jobs growth meant that Black-white employment gaps were among the smallest on record.
Why it matters: The more dismal labor market outcomes are in step with previous slowdowns, when weaker hiring affected marginalized groups first.
- Unemployment among young adults of all races has also soared, for example.
- But new factors that are specific to this economic cycle — like shrinking government employment — add to the pressure.
By the numbers: The overall unemployment rate has risen 0.5 percentage point this year, hitting 4.6% in November.
- Over the same period, the jobless rate for Black Americans has jumped by 2.2 percentage points, to 8.3% — up from the record low rate of 4.8% seen in the spring of 2023.
Zoom in: The Black unemployment rate has been higher than the overall population since at least the early 1970s, when the government started tracking it.
- But the rates had begun to converge, before blowing out again in recent months. One key reason: shrinking federal employment. DOGE-affected workers fell off payrolls in October.
What they're saying: "The federal government has always been a place where Black people have been able to find employment — quality jobs, benefits, things like that," says Gbenga Ajilore, chief economist at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.
- "There's just been this kind of push toward reducing the federal government through all different means," Ajilore adds.
In a Truth Social post on Friday, President Trump said the rise in the overall unemployment rate "is because we are reducing the Government Workforce by numbers that have never been seen before."
- "I could reduce Unemployment to 2% overnight by just hiring people into the Federal Government, even though those Jobs are not necessary," Trump said. (The unemployment rate has never been that low; it was 2.5% in the early 1950s, helped by the post-war demand boom.)
Between the lines: Trump touted record-low unemployment among Black Americans in his first term, a milestone hit before the COVID-19 pandemic, as a key economic achievement.
- More recently, Trump has suggested that the administration's immigration crackdown would see more job opportunities go to Black workers — an outcome that has not come to pass.
For the record: "President Trump is implementing the same America First economic agenda that delivered historic job and wage growth — including record-low Black unemployment rates — in his first term, as well as the first drop in wealth inequality in decades," White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers said.
The intrigue: Much of the recent surge in Black unemployment has stemmed from younger workers, another group that has seen unemployment rise as entry-level job opportunities dry up.
- But even among prime-age workers, the trend is concerning.
- Unemployment rates for prime-age Black workers, aged 25-54, hit 6.7%, up more than a percentage point from the same time last year. The comparable rate for white workers is 3%, the same rate as last November.
What to watch: Gaps in employment have also inched back up after touching historic lows relative to white counterparts.
- Roughly 76% of the Black prime-age population were employed as of November, about 6 percentage points less than the comparable measure for white workers.
- That's a far cry from the record 10 percentage point gap seen in 2011 during a sluggish recovery from the 2008 financial crisis.
- But it is still more than double the smallest gap on record of 2.6 percentage points — a milestone reached in early 2024.
Editor's note: This story has been updated with comments from President Trump and the White House.
