What readers got right — and wrong — about the economy this year
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Axios Macro readers — about 600 respondents — nailed their predictions of three of the most important measures of the economy in 2025: unemployment, inflation and GDP growth.
- They weren't quite so prescient when it came to the trajectory of job creation or Federal Reserve policy.
Why it matters: The wisdom of crowds — especially a crowd as astute as this newsletter's readership — can give a unique sense of both the baseline outlook and what risks loom on the horizon.
- And the areas in which the Axios Macro Consensus was and wasn't correct are revelatory about how the economy surprised this year.
By the numbers: The median reader projection was for the unemployment rate to rise to 4.6%, which is exactly where it stood last month.
- Readers anticipated an uptick in inflation, with the Consumer Price Index rising 3.1%. When the November data comes out Thursday, analysts are expecting it will show a 3% year-on-year CPI rise.
- Similarly, the median respondent saw a downshift to 2.3% year-over-year GDP growth in the third quarter. The number comes out next week (thanks to the government shutdown), and using the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool, the reading is on track to come in at 2.1%.
Yes, but: There are other areas where readers whiffed, particularly around job growth.
- You anticipated that employers would add an average of 150,000 jobs a month. Through November, that average was only 55,000.
- The low rate of job growth reflects slumping labor supply due to tighter immigration policy and demographic change, as well as the Trump administration's federal government cutbacks.
- Federal payrolls shrank by 162,000 jobs in October alone, due to the DOGE buyout program.
Of note: The Federal Reserve also cut interest rates more than Macro readers expected. Your consensus projection for the year-end Fed policy implied a coin flip of whether there would be even a single 2025 rate cut.
- Instead, chair Jerome Powell & Co. delivered three rate cuts worth three-quarters of a percentage point.
- The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond also fell by more than you expected, to around 4.2%. You pegged it at 4.4%.
The intrigue: In last year's projections, submitted between the presidential election and Trump's inauguration, readers anticipated 10% across-the-board tariffs, as Trump had talked about on the campaign trail.
- For now, pending legal challenges and the latest headlines out of the White House, the weighted average tariff rate is 16.8%, per the Yale Budget Lab.
Enter your 2026 economic projections here.
