China on track for massive population decline
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People in the year 2100 will be younger in Africa, and dramatically older in East Asia and Europe, as power tilts sharply toward the global South, per the U.S. Census Bureau's latest global population projections.
Why it matters: This radical reshaping, with mega-nations rising in Africa while China risks the steepest population decline in recorded history, will upend today's geopolitical order.
- The shift could make African countries among the fastest-growing economies in the world — or create a string of humanitarian crises that may define the start of the next century.
By the numbers: Africa will become the world's demographic center of gravity as it more than doubles its population from 2030 to 2100, the U.S. Census Bureau's International Database (IDB) released last week projects.
- While Africa's population is projected to soar by 155%, Asia's population will drop by 9% and Europe will contract by 16% as aging and low fertility accelerate long-term decline, an Axios analysis of the data found.
- South America is predicted to shrink 12%, and North America will grow only modestly, up 4%, mainly through migration rather than births.
Zoom in: The Democratic Republic of the Congo is predicted to become a mega-nation, growing from 139 million in 2030 to 584 million by next century — the largest increase on Earth, an Axios review found.
- Nigeria is expected to add 283 million people during that same period. Tanzania, Ethiopia, Uganda, Angola and Niger are slated to add 100 million people each.
⬇️ China will shrink dramatically, falling from 1.4 billion people to 662 million — the steepest decline of any nation in recorded demographic history, according to an Axios review of population data.
- Europe and the rest of East Asia will enter long-term population contraction, reshaping labor markets, militaries and politics.
- The U.S. population will increase modestly, buoyed primarily by predicted migration, according to the census estimates. It's predicted that the U.S. will grow to 370 million, slightly up from 343 million now.
Zoom out: India will retain its No. 1 position with 1.5 billion people, even as its growth slows, the projection estimates.
- It is the only top-three population giant that isn't expected to experience decline this century.
- Russia, Japan, South Korea, Ukraine, Italy and Spain all face structural demographic implosion driven by aging and long-term sub-replacement fertility.
Between the lines: A booming Africa will supply the bulk of the world's future workforce, and, increasingly, its consumers, religious communities and urban centers.
- Meanwhile, aging and shrinking populations in Europe and East Asia will constrain military strength, slow economic output and intensify competition for migrants, even as automation and AI accelerate.
Yes, but: A lot can happen in 75 years.
- An unforeseen world war, climate catastrophe, economic collapse and religious transformations could alter population trends.
What to watch: Rapidly growing nations — especially Nigeria, Ethiopia and the DRC — will have to translate demographic momentum into political stability, infrastructure development and sustained economic power.
- Aging economies in East Asia and Europe may intensify efforts to attract migrants, setting up a talent competition that could reshape immigration policy worldwide.
- The growth of massive African megacities like Lagos, Kinshasa and Dar es Salaam could become the new hubs of culture, commerce, and innovation — or places of humanitarian upheaval sparking global conflict.
Go deeper: This "megacity" has overtaken Tokyo to become the world's largest city
