Influential study sees momentum ebbing on cutting global CO2 emissions

The big picture: "There is less momentum than before behind national and international efforts to reduce emissions, yet climate risks are rising," it states.

A few takeaways...

Energy security and affordability concerns have risen on nations' priority lists in these "volatile" times — a mixed bag for low-carbon sources.

• "Some, including many fuel-importing countries, lean towards renewables and efficiency as solutions. Others focus more on ensuring ample supplies of traditional fuels," it states.

Big changes are "reshaping the energy landscape" in the U.S., notably huge policy shifts under the GOP.

• IEA sees U.S. oil output rising slowly to 2035 under existing policies, and continued gas production increases, though coal output keeps falling.

It models a global "current policies scenario" (CPS) for the first time since 2019.

• This marks a return to studying a more pessimistic projection of energy transition.
• It sees long-term global oil and gas demand growth, though coal use would start dropping this decade.

There are lots of eyes on this one. Trump administration officials and some analysts say what had been the most cautious model — the "stated policies scenario" (STEPS) — was unrealistic about the movement away from fossil fuels.

• This year's STEPS run, by the way, no longer sees gas demand growth ending this decade, contra last year's.
• Instead, it projects a plateau in the mid-late 2030s, then gentle decline to 2050.
• STEPS — which explores existing and planned policies — still sees oil demand growth ending this decade, though at slightly higher levels than its previous report.

Electricity demand grows "much faster" than overall energy use in all scenarios.

• Global power thirst soars by around 40% by 2035 in those "current" and "stated" cases, and over 50% by then under a hypothetical roadmap to net-zero emissions in 2050.
• "The pace varies, but renewables grow faster than any other major energy source in all scenarios, led by solar photovoltaics," IEA states. But IEA slightly trimmed its renewables growth outlook, citing U.S. policy changes.

Big emissions cuts are nowhere in sight, and global temps soar far past Paris goals.

• Under current policies, global CO2 emissions are basically the same in 2050 as today, and fall just 22% by 2050 in the "stated" case.

That data center thing is really a thing. Wild stat: Investment in data centers will reach $580 billion this year, surpassing the roughly $540B invested in new oil supply, IEA estimates.

• "This point of comparison provides a telling marker of the changing nature of modern, highly digitalised economies," it states.

But keep some perspective. Data centers are just one piece of the power story, and are highly concentrated in advanced economies and China.

• Data centers account for under 10% of global electricity demand growth between 2024 and 2030, behind industry, appliances, and more.

What they're saying: OPEC, which has long argued there's no oil or gas demand peak in sight, claimed validation on Wednesday morning (even though the "current policies" case is just one scenario).

What we're watching: Whether the report dulls U.S. criticism of IEA and threats to withdraw from the body.

• But on the flip side, the climate think tank Ember says IEA risks underestimating clean tech growth.
• "Even the scenario based on stated policies (STEPS) should be taken as a floor [and] not a ceiling, given it doesn't factor in exponential change in technology adoption or other announced policy commitments," the group said in response to the report.

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