Brace yourself for a government reopening data dump
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Illustration: Lindsey Bailey/Axios
The economic data tap might soon reopen if Congress is successful in passing a funding deal.
Why it matters: Among the disruptions from the longest government shutdown on record — an interruption in the flow of indicators, including two monthly jobs reports, third-quarter GDP, the Consumer Price Index and more.
The intrigue: After more than a month of a data drought, there will be a flood of information as government agencies release their reports that had been delayed by the shutdown, including at least five weeks of jobless claims data.
- Once the government reopens, the September jobs report should be released within a matter of days.
- The jobs data was reportedly ready, though the shutdown furloughed the workers at the Bureau of Labor Statistics who are charged with releasing it.
Yes, but: We may never have a complete government accounting of how inflation or the labor market fared in October. There were no workers around to compile the necessary information for the reports.
- "While the BLS could estimate the [price] data that was missing, it seems highly unlikely that the agency would want to go down that path," Michael Brown, a strategist at Pepperstone, wrote in a note.
- "This raises the risk that the BLS, instead, decide that they are unable to publish CPI data for October, with there also being the potential for the November report never to see the light of day, depending on exactly when the government re-opens," he added.
What to watch: Even if the government reopens this week, November reports could be delayed. For instance, the BLS typically would be surveying businesses and households for the jobs report this week.
- Those surveys "have not gone out to companies and the period between the survey week and the scheduled publication data for payrolls is a short one with Thanksgiving falling in that period," John Ryding, chief economic adviser at Brean Capital, wrote Monday morning.
The bottom line: "It seems likely that the government will reopen sometime this week but it also seems likely that the Fed will have little by way of official data on jobs and prices at its next policy meeting even if it does reopen," Ryding wrote.
- The Fed's next policy meeting is Dec. 9-10.
