Where the COVID surge is "very high" and what to watch for this winter
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Pockets of the country are seeing COVID activity ahead of the winter months.
The big picture: COVID-19 cases boomed in the summer, and many health experts are seeing another bump — mostly through common variants that have surged this year.
- Though the United States has declared the public health emergency over, the spread of COVID-19 has continued to impact the country and its workforce — leading to an increase in work absences and exits.
Driving the news: Global cases are on the rise, surging by 30,000 over the last week or so, per data shared on the World Health Organization's COVID dashboard.
- Researchers told Scientific American that the number of infections is likely higher than that given the slowdown in testing worldwide.
Reality check: COVID-19 cases are generally down compared to the high levels seen in 2024 or the peak of the pandemic. But that doesn't mean cases are gone completely.
Here's what to know about the state of COVID ahead of winter.
Where COVID cases are surging
Generally, the viral activity of COVID in the United States is at a "moderate" level, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's monitoring of wastewater levels.
- Wastewater levels typically detect viruses spreading from one person to another throughout a community, the CDC says.
- "It can also detect infections without symptoms. If you see increased wastewater viral activity levels, it might indicate that there is a higher risk of infection," per the CDC.
Zoom in: The Northeast has the highest wastewater activity in the U.S., the CDC says. Connecticut has a "very high" level of activity, while Massachusetts, Rhode Island and New York have "high" levels.
- Elsewhere, Nevada and Utah have "very high" viral activity.
- Most of the Western U.S. has "high" levels of activity, too.
Yes, but: Vermont, another Northeastern state, has "low" activity. Similarly, Michigan and Missouri have "very low" activity, per the CDC data.
What new COVID variants are spreading
Context: The XFG variant — also known as the Stratus variant — is leading all others with 85% share of cases, according to CDC data running through the end of September.
- The NB.1.8.1 variant — otherwise known as Nimbus — has about 7% of the share.
- Both of those variants are descendants of the Omicron strain.
Flashback: The XFG Stratus variant started making headlines last January, and it was soon monitored by the WHO. The variant didn't make much noise in the U.S. through the first half of the year, but soon began to surge throughout the late summer months.
Common COVID symptoms for Stratus, Nimbus
Threat level: The Stratus and Nimbus variants have similar common COVID symptoms compared to previous variants, including:
- Fever
- Cough
- Runny nose
- Chills
- Congestion
Yes, but: The Nimbus variant causes a "razor blade" sore throat, per multiple reports.
When are you no longer contagious with COVID?
The CDC says those infected with a respiratory virus should use precautions for five days to reduce risk.
- "After this 5-day period, you are typically much less likely to be contagious," the CDC says.
- For COVID, the CDC recommends taking a test to know if you're still infected and can spread the virus.
Generally, the CDC says you can go back to normal activity after at least 24 hours and you feel better or no longer have a fever.
COVID vaccine rules for winter 2025
Zoom out: The CDC approved a set of recommendations from Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s vaccine advisers in October — including changes to how people get COVID-19 vaccines.
- This includes a recommendation that older Americans consult with a health provider before getting vaccinated.
- Experts generally see the COVID vaccine as safe and effective, especially for those at risk for serious illness.
