Weight-loss drug wars enter new phase as Eli Lilly goes global
Add Axios as your preferred source to
see more of our stories on Google.
Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios
Eli Lilly's GLP-1 sales are rising at an unexpectedly strong pace, prompting its arch rival to make a surprising bid for an upstart obesity drug maker that another pharmaceutical company had already agreed to acquire.
Why it matters: The dynamic competitive landscape in the weight-loss drugs space continues to shift.
Driving the news: Lilly on Thursday raised its 2025 revenue guidance as sales of diabetes drug Mounjaro soared past expectations while obesity drug Zepbound also delivered strong results.
- The company's revenue jumped 54% to $17.6 billion in the latest quarter, compared with a year earlier, even as realized prices fell 10% amid pressure to make its drugs more affordable.
State of play: Lilly is poised to leapfrog Novo Nordisk and become the dominant player in an obesity drug market that could reach $150 billion by the end of the decade, Axios' Tina Reed reported last week.
- The push to develop blockbuster weight loss drugs had been a two-horse race dominated by Novo until the maker of Wegovy and Ozempic started backsliding on weaker sales growth.
- Since then, Novo has laid off thousands and revised earnings guidance downward.
Facing a serious risk of falling further behind, Novo on Thursday announced an unsolicited rival offer worth up to $9 billion for obesity biotech firm Metsera.
- Pfizer — which had already agreed to buy Metsera for up to $7.3 billion — called the Novo bid "reckless and unprecedented" and vowed to wage a legal fight to block it.
- Leerink Partners analyst David Risinger suggested in a research note that Denmark-based Novo might run into regulatory issues, noting "the Trump administration's America First initiatives."
What we're watching: The GLP-1 boom is becoming increasingly global, providing a new avenue for growth.
- Lilly's revenue outside of the U.S. soared 74% to $6.3 billion, with the volume jump "driven primarily by Mounjaro," according to the company.
- Lilly CFO Lucas Montarce said on an earnings call that the "robust" performance for Mounjaro in foreign markets comes despite the fact that "obesity reimbursement remains limited internationally" and 75% of revenue for the drug internationally is coming from patients who pay out of pocket for it.
The impact: Lilly shares closed up 3.8% Thursday, while Novo slipped 2.6%.
