How Trump is attempting to Supreme Court-proof his tariffs
Add Axios as your preferred source to
see more of our stories on Google.
Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios
The Trump administration expanded the scope of tariffs in recent weeks in ways designed to withstand legal scrutiny — a strategy that would leave substantial new import taxes in place even if the Supreme Court rules that earlier levies were illegal.
Why it matters: It is a barrage of new import duties that continues to shift the calculations of doing business in America — with no end in sight.
- For the economy, the constant imposition of new tariffs raises the likelihood of more persistent inflation, not the one-time price increase that economic policymakers had hoped.
Driving the news: Monday night, the White House released new details on its tariff plans for lumber, timber and certain furnishings.
- Effective Oct. 14, imported lumber will face a tariff rate of 10%. Upholstered furniture, as well as kitchen cabinets and vanities, will be subject to 25% rates now before rising to 30% and 50%, respectively, in 2026.
- Earlier in the day, President Trump threatened "substantial" tariffs on foreign-manufactured furniture, as well as 100% rates on "any and all movies" made internationally.
The intrigue: Most of Trump's tariff agenda risks being unraveled by the Supreme Court.
- The high court has agreed to hear a case on the legality of using an untested law, the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, to impose sweeping global tariffs.
- The European Union, the U.K. and Japan are largely exempt from the latest tariff ramp-up, though it's unclear what happens to those negotiated trade frameworks if the Supreme Court upends the reciprocal tariffs backing them.
What to watch: The Trump administration is building a wall of other tariffs, ones less likely to be knocked down in the future.
- The latest levies — and many likely headed for a slew of industries down the line — will be implemented under a separate trade authority, section 232, used to implement many of the tariffs during Trump 1.0.
- The Commerce Department has at least seven other section 232 investigations underway on semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, robotics, aircraft and more — all of which, at least if history is any guide, are likely to end with significantly higher tariff rates.
What they're saying: "In a lot of ways, the IEEPA tariffs are about raising revenue — not necessarily rearranging supply chains," Andrew Gier, an analyst at policy research firm Capstone, tells Axios.
- "With the 232 tariffs, the tariff rates are higher and it's a lot harder for businesses to weather it," Gier said.
- Gier added that the Trump administration might also lean on section 301 — a separate trade authority granted to the U.S. Trade Representative — to impose future tariffs, particularly if IEEPA is overturned.
- "You can use 232 to go product-by-product and 301 to go country-by-country," Gier said.
Zoom in: Monday night's order includes language that gives wide latitude to expand the tariffs to additional wood products for any factor that Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick "deems appropriate."
- That includes "receiving requests or information from domestic producers" for the inclusion of certain products.
- That was one way in which Lutnick expanded the scope of steel and aluminum tariffs last month to include hundreds more products, surprising manufacturers who use the metals as inputs.
