The deals market has become lopsided

Zoom in: The dichotomy plays out in all sorts of deal data shared by LSEG, which is preliminary as Q3 doesn't end until next Tuesday.

• Global M&A: +32% vs. -9%
• U.S. M&A: +22% vs. -14%
• PE-backed M&A: +16.5% vs. -17.5%
• IPOs (ex-SPACs): +18% vs. -3%
• Follow-on equity offerings: +5% vs. -5%
• Total equity capital markets (including SPACs): +18% vs. -1%
• High yield bond issuance: +16% vs. -1%

And then there's venture capital, where the gap is greatest.

• For that I did a PitchBook search, which showed a 42.8% increase in deal dollars and a 31.43 decrease in deal number.

Caveats: There are a handful of exceptions in the LSEG data, including total debt issuance and SPAC IPOs, but they're exceptions to the 2025 rule.

The bottom line: This sort of deals market benefits bigger buyers, although won't necessarily result in bigger ROI.