A lull in EV sales? More time to build charging stations

• Once EV sales resume their natural, organic growth rate — which everyone in the industry expects to happen eventually — charging anxiety will likely be less of an issue.

Driving the news: EVs have been flying off dealer lots lately as consumers rush to take advantage of the expiring $7,500 federal tax credit.

• In August, new EV sales hit a record 146,332 units, up almost 18% from a year ago, and accounting for 10% of all new car sales for the month. September looks to be another record, according to Cox Automotive.
• Used EVs, eligible for a tax credit of up to $4,000, have also seen strong sales ahead of the deadline.
• Inventories are shrinking because of the pull-ahead in demand, and many carmakers have indicated they'll cut EV production for the remainder of the year, further limiting availability.

The upshot: EV sales are widely expected to slow after Sept. 30.

Between the lines: A lull in EV sales could be well-timed because it can take years to get a single charging station up and running.

• Local permitting and property acquisition take time, and utilities often need to first make expensive electrical upgrades.
• Construction delays are also common.

After a slow start, the rollout of charging infrastructure is finally beginning to pick up steam.

• "The flywheel is in motion," says GM's head of public charging, William Hotchkiss.
• "We've got to make sure we don't lose momentum," he tells Axios. "A potential slowdown in EV sales will allow infrastructure to catch up."

By the numbers: A seminal 2023 study by the U.S. Department of Energy's National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) estimated the U.S. will need 28 million charging ports by 2030 in order to support 33 million EVs (a "mid-scenario" EV adoption rate).

• The vast majority of those chargers would be private — Level 1 and 2 ports located at single-family homes, apartments and workplaces.
• About 1 million of them would be publicly accessible Level 2 chargers at retail stores, libraries, parking garages and other locations near high-density neighborhoods.
• Also needed: 182,000 DC fast-chargers along highways and in metro areas to accommodate EV road trips, ride-share drivers and others in need of a quick recharge.

Where it stands: We've still got a long way to go.

• The U.S. currently has about 228,000 public charging ports — less than one-quarter of the number we'll need.
• Of those, roughly 62,000 are DC fast-chargers — a third of what's needed.

Caveat: Since EV sales have been slower than expected, those targets aren't particularly urgent.

• Today, there are about 5 million EVs on the road in the U.S., per S&P Global Mobility — well short of NREL's assumption of 33 million by 2030.
• The DOE lab hopes to update those targets in a future study, NREL researcher Eric Wood tells Axios.

What they're saying: "Regardless of future EV sales, we have to address the underlying challenge that, as it stands, charging infrastructure lags behind demand," Seth Cutler, CEO of Ionna, tells Axios.

• Ionna, a joint venture between eight automakers, aims to build 30,000 charging bays by the end of 2030.

What to watch: After a six-month freeze, the Trump administration has resumed a Biden-era federal program to fund the installation of fast chargers along major highways.

• The National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure (NEVI) program, while nabbing a lot of attention, accounts for only a small sliver of the nation's future charging infrastructure.
• Most chargers are being built via private investment by companies that include gas and convenience stores, retailers like Walmart, as well as automakers hoping to prime the pump for EV sales.

Editor's note: This story has been updated to clarify that William Hotchkiss is head of public charging for GM (not only for its GM Energy unit).