Why COVID-19 risk might be "very high" in these 5 states
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Western states appear most at risk for COVID-19 cases right now, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, as the "stratus" variant and other versions of the virus circulate nationally.
The big picture: Wastewater viral activity for COVID-19 has shifted from "moderate" to "low" this month, though some states in the West buck the trend.
Driving the news: The CDC's map for COVID-19 wastewater monitoring showed these states had "very high" viral activity levels from Aug. 3 to Aug. 9, 2025:
- Utah
- Nevada
- Texas
- Alaska
- Hawaii
Worth noting: California, Louisiana, Alabama, Florida, South Carolina and Connecticut all have "high" levels of viral activity, per data the CDC last updated on Aug. 14.
What they're saying: "If you see increased wastewater viral activity levels, it might indicate that there is a higher risk of infection," the CDC says.
Context: Nationally, viral activity dipped into the "low" range after the recent reemergence of the "stratus" COVID variant sent viral activity levels into the "moderate" phase.
- As of Aug. 12, the CDC said COVID infections "are growing or likely growing" in the majority of states.
- A dozen states are seeing high COVID test positivity rates compared to the rest of the country, according to recent CDC regional data. Still, case numbers are below peak pandemic levels.
Current COVID-19 variants, like "stratus"
What to know: These states are seeing a spike in viral activity and cases as the "nimbus" or NB.1.8.1 variant remains the top strand across the U.S., per CDC estimates from June.
- The LP.8.1 variant, a descendent of omicron, is the second most common, accounting for roughly one-third of cases.
- The XFG variant, also known as "stratus," is still third-highest with 14% of cases. However, according to CDC trends, the XFG variant made up 65% of the variants detected in wastewater nationwide as of Aug. 9.
COVID symptoms for the current variants are similar to normal strains, such as fever, chills, cough, sore throat and congestion.
- However, there have been reports of "hoarseness" with the "stratus" variant and "razor-blade" sore throats for the "nimbus" variant.
What's next with COVID?
Rises in COVID-19 cases in the late summer and early fall aren't uncommon given children are headed back to school.
- But the recent COVID bounce has hit the U.S. as Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. unilaterally changed federal COVID vaccine recommendations, causing massive vaccine confusion for parents and doctors.
What to watch: The CDC's next updates will likely point out how impactful the school year has been so far in terms of case positivity and viral activity.
Case in point: North Texas reportedly already saw a rise in COVID cases as children returned to school.
